491
FXUS61 KOKX 161616
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1116 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/MIXED
PRECIP CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY DETAILS ON
PRECIP TYPE REMAIN LOW AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TUE NIGHT INTO WED, THEN A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH WED NIGHT INTO THU. POPS REMAINS
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET
WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THAT ARRIVES EARLIER
DURING WED MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RANGE FROM
1/10 TO 1/3 INCH, HIGHEST INLAND.
POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE FRONT SHOULD
PASS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY NOSE IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY FRI AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AND THE HIGH RETREATS. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE TREKS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ANOTHER LOW FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S, WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND 20S TO LOWER
30S INLAND.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX, MAINLY SNOW AND RAIN, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN, LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
N-NE WINDS EITHER SIDE OF 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT E-SE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND BECOME LIGHT SW TONIGHT. INLAND N-NE WINDS 5-10
KT BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMD LIKELY AS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ALREADY OCCURRING WELL
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: MVFR WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ENDING EARLY IN THE
MORNING, THEN BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY: MVFR AND LOWER LIKELY IN RAIN ACROSS THE NYC METRO/LONG
ISLAND TERMINALS, AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE NORTH.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OUTER WATERS. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY AS SEAS
BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT. EXTENSION OF THE SCA IS LIKELY AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...BG/MET
MARINE...JP/NV
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