681
FXUS61 KOKX 161617
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1117 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THREAT FOR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE N&W OF NYC/NJ METRO LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE N & W OF NYC/NJ METRO
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM.
2) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/MIXED
PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ONCE
AGAIN LATE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY DETAILS ON PRECIP TYPE REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SHEARED OUT MID-LEVEL PAC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TONIGHT ALONG WITH 100KT ULJ STREAK, WITH WEAK WARM FRONT
APPROACHING AT THE SURFACE.
MODELS INDICATING ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION FOR SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS INTERIOR. DRIER AIR IN SNOW-GROWTH
LAYER AND MARGINALLY COLD LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE
THAT P-TYPE WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY LIQUID. WITH SURFACE TEMPS
AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING N & W OF NYC/NJ METRO PROPER THIS
PRESENTS POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. QUESTION IN HOW FAR WEST PRECIP GETS
BEFORE DAYBREAK, AS PATCHY FREEZING RAIN THREAT WOULD ALSO
EXIST ACROSS EASTERN LI IF PRECIP ARRIVED BEFORE MID-MORNING.
WITH LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF PRECIP AND EXISTING ROAD
TREATMENT FROM LAST NIGHT SNOW EVENT, WILL ADDRESS THREAT WITH
SPS. FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD END BY MID MORNING WITH TEMPS
RISING ABOVE FREEZING AND MID FEB SOLAR INSOLATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TUE NIGHT INTO WED, THEN A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH WED NIGHT INTO THU. POPS REMAINS LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL FOR WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET WELL
NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THAT ARRIVES EARLIER
DURING WED MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RANGE FROM
1/10 TO 1/3 INCH, HIGHEST INLAND.
POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE FRONT SHOULD
PASS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY NOSE IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY FRI AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AND THE HIGH RETREATS. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE TREKS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ANOTHER LOW FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S, WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND 20S TO LOWER 30S
INLAND.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX, MAINLY SNOW AND RAIN, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN, LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
N-NE WINDS EITHER SIDE OF 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT E-SE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND BECOME LIGHT SW TONIGHT. INLAND N-NE WINDS 5-10
KT BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMD LIKELY AS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ALREADY OCCURRING WELL
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: MVFR WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ENDING EARLY IN THE
MORNING, THEN BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY: MVFR AND LOWER LIKELY IN RAIN ACROSS THE NYC METRO/LONG
ISLAND TERMINALS, AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE NORTH.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHEAST GUSTS
TO 25 TODAY ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS. WINDS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 4-6FT THRU
TUESDAY, MAINLY IN A EASTERLY SWELL.
WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY FALL BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE, SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...GOODMAN/MET
MARINE...JP/NV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page