569
FXUS61 KOKX 162047
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THREAT FOR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE N&W OF NYC/NJ METRO LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OUTSIDE OF NYC/NJ METRO
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM.
2) MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS INTERIOR (PARTICULARLY S
CT) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
3) PREDICTABILITY DETAILS REMAIN LOW AT THIS POINT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE FRIDAY AND LATE WEEKEND TIME
FRAMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SHEARED OUT MID-LEVEL PAC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TONIGHT ALONG WITH 100KT ULJ STREAK, WITH WEAK WARM FRONT
APPROACHING AT THE SURFACE.
MODELS INDICATING ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION FOR SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
PROBABILITY ACROSS INTERIOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LACK
OF SATURATION IN SNOW-GROWTH LAYER AND MARGINALLY COLD LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. THIS POINTS TOWARDS PREDOMINANT LIQUID
P-TYPE, BUT COULD BE JUST COULD ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME ICE
NUCLEATION (LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN), PARTICULARLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF NYC WITH DEEPER COLD POOL.
WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF NYC/NJ METRO
PROPER THIS PRESENTS POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. QUESTION IN HOW FAR EAST PRECIP
GETS BEFORE DAYBREAK, AS PATCHY FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY END
BY MID-MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AND MID FEB SOLAR
INSOLATION.
WITH LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF PRECIP AND EXISTING ROAD TREATMENT
FROM LAST NIGHT SNOW EVENT, WILL ADDRESS SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN THREAT
WITH SPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SHEARING PAC SHORTWAVE AND NE EXTENDED PAC/SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY, LIFTING A 2+ STD PWAT AIRMASS
OVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND EASTWARD TRAVELING FRONTAL
WAVE WED INTO WED EVE. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH WARM FRONT REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
BROAD/WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING OVER THE AREA WED INTO
WED EVE. GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BEST MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WOULD KEEP HEAVIEST 1/2-1" QPF AXIS NORTH OF THE LOCAL
REGION, WITH A GENERAL 1/4 TO 1/2" LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
EVENT FOR THE REGION WED MORNING INTO WED NIGHT
THERMAL PROFILES FROM NYC/NJ METRO AND MUCH OF THE COAST ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. MODEL CONSENSUS THERMAL
PROFILES ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE JUST MARGINALLY ABOVE FREEZING,
SO P-TYPE WILL BE PREDICATED ON STRENGTH OF WARM NOSE AND
DYNAMIC COOLING UNDER ANY HEAVIER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MAINLY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET WED AM.
GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
INTERIOR S CT AND POSSIBLY ALL OF SE CT LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT,
WITH BETTER FRONTOGENETIC LIFT, WEAKER WARM NOSE, AND
POTENTIALLY DEEPER COLD POOL DRAINING DOWN FROM CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND.
AT THIS POINT WPC WSE MEAN OF A FEW TENTHS IN THIS AREA, WITH
REASONABLE WORST CASE OF AROUND AN INCH. NBM PROBS OF 1" OR
GREATER ARE LESS THAN 10% IN THIS AREA, BUT ECMWF AI INDICATING
30-40% PROB FOR 1" SNOW-SLEET WED NIGHT.
OVERALL, NOT A HIGH IMPACT EVENT, BUT MODEL TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME ACCUMULATING SLEET/SNOW ACROSS
INTERIOR S CT, AND POSSIBLY ALL OF SE CT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU AM.
DRYING CONDITIONS LATE WED NIGHT INTO WAKE OF SHEARING
SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL WAVE, WITH CAA ON N WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
LOW PREDICTABILITY WITH A GOOD DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT IN 500 MB
MASS FIELD FORECAST OUTPUT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL NWP AND AI
GUIDANCE FOR THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.
FIRST, UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS HOW FAR NORTH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS
DURING FRIDAY. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS THIS WILL DETERMINE PRECIP
TYPE(S), ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER
TO FREEZING. OTHERWISE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
PRIMARILY RAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT COLDER AIR MAY GET INTO TOWARDS EARLY
SATURDAY WHERE SOME OF THE PRECIP MAY BE IN FROZEN FORM BEFORE
EXITING AND PUSHING TO THE EAST.
SECOND, SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TOWARDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE ECMWF AI AND NOW THE ICON DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATING ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND POTENTIAL EAST COAST STORM LATE SUN INTO
MON. FOR NOW WILL CARRY STRAIGHT BLEND / CONSENSUS GUIDANCE UNTIL
DETAILS COME BETTER INTO FOCUS. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE WILL BE
CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
N-NE 5-10 KT WILL SHIFT S AT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 23Z-24Z. WINDS
THEN BECOME LIGHT S-SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND THEN SW 5-10 KT
LATE TUE MORNING.
VFR COND ATTM SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE MORNING, MAINLY AS LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT THE NYC METROS
WHERE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, BUT COULD BE LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND/OR SNOW AT THE OTHER TERMINALS WHERE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMD STILL POSSIBLE TO ADJUST TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING
AND ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS TONIGHT.
KEWR/KTEB COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS FROM ABOUT
13Z-16Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: BECOMING VFR EARLY.
WEDNESDAY: RAIN. IFR COND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE, WITH CHANCE OF SNOW AT
KSWF AND RAIN/SNOW ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND EXPECTED, WITH RAIN AT THE NYC
METROS/KISP AND RAIN/SNOW TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY: STILL A CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER COND, WITH RAIN/SNOW AT
KSWF AND MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25KT THIS AFTERNOON, SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
AND BACK TO THE SW. MEANWHILE 4-6 FT OCEAN SEAS, MAINLY IN A
EASTERLY SWELL, WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GENERALLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS NEAR THE WATERS WITH
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ON IT WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING BOTH
PERIODS, MAINLY FOR SEAS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JE/NV
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JE/NV
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