391
FXUS61 KOKX 170705
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
205 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OUTSIDE OF NYC/NJ METRO
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.
2) MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
3) PREDICTABILITY DETAILS REMAIN LOW AT THIS POINT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE FRIDAY AND LATE WEEKEND TIME
FRAMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WEAK WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT AS LIFT IS RATHER WEAK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AT 06Z WERE ABOVE FREEZING, AND WITH LOW CLOUD
COVER TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE
ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF THE NYC
METRO AREA TEMPERATURES WERE WELL BELOW FREEZING AND AS THE
WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
INITIALLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.
CAMS ARE SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SPOTTY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SHEARING PAC SHORTWAVE AND NE EXTENDED PAC/SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY, LIFTING A 2+ STD PWAT AIRMASS
OVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND EASTWARD TRAVELING FRONTAL
WAVE WED INTO WED EVE. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH WARM FRONT REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
BROAD/WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING OVER THE AREA WED INTO
WED EVE. GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BEST MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
THERMAL PROFILES FROM NYC/NJ METRO AND MUCH OF THE COAST ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. MODEL CONSENSUS THERMAL
PROFILES ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE JUST MARGINALLY ABOVE FREEZING,
SO P-TYPE WILL BE PREDICATED ON STRENGTH OF WARM NOSE AND
DYNAMIC COOLING UNDER ANY HEAVIER FRONTOGENETIC BANDING.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MAINLY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL, NOT A HIGH IMPACT EVENT, BUT MODEL TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME ACCUMULATING SLEET/SNOW ACROSS
INTERIOR S CT, AND POSSIBLY ALL OF SE CT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU AM.
DRYING CONDITIONS LATE WED NIGHT INTO WAKE OF SHEARING
SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL WAVE, WITH CAA ON N WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
LOW PREDICTABILITY WITH A GOOD DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT IN 500 MB
MASS FIELD FORECAST OUTPUT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL NWP AND AI
GUIDANCE FOR THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.
FIRST, UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS HOW FAR NORTH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS DURING FRIDAY. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS THIS WILL DETERMINE
PRECIP TYPE(S), ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. OTHERWISE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY RAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT COLDER AIR MAY
GET INTO TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY WHERE SOME OF THE PRECIP MAY BE
IN FROZEN FORM BEFORE EXITING AND PUSHING TO THE EAST.
SECOND, SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TOWARDS LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE ECMWF AI AND NOW THE ICON DETERMINISTIC
RUNS INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND POTENTIAL EAST
COAST STORM LATE SUN INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CARRY STRAIGHT BLEND
/ CONSENSUS GUIDANCE UNTIL DETAILS COME BETTER INTO FOCUS.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME, A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY
MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND THEN SW 5-10 KT
LATE TUESDAY MORNING, BECOMING WSW IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO
START, BECOMING MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR FOR MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE IFR BECOMES
PREVAILING, ESPECIALLY AT KSWF AND KHPN. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING,
MAINLY AS LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT THE NYC METROS WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, BUT COULD BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR SNOW AT THE OTHER TERMINALS WHERE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
AT OR BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
CHANCE OF IFR FROM 13Z-16Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOW CHANCE OF IFR AT THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY: RAIN. IFR COND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE, WITH CHANCE OF SNOW AT
KSWF AND RAIN/SNOW ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND EXPECTED, WITH RAIN AT THE NYC
METROS/KISP AND RAIN/SNOW TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY: STILL A CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER COND, WITH RAIN/SNOW AT
KSWF AND MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OCEAN SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 5 FEET DUE TO A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEAST SWELL WHICH WILL BE SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING INTO LATE
TONIGHT EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS NEAR THE WATERS WITH WEAK AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ON IT WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING BOTH PERIODS, MAINLY
FOR SEAS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...MET/JE
AVIATION...JP/DW
MARINE...MET/JE
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