986
FXUS61 KOKX 172044
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10AM
TOMORROW BOTH ON LAND AND OVER THE SEAS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
2) MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
3) RAIN/WINTRY MIX EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
4) POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT
WITH SOME AREAS IN THE INTERIOR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, DENSE FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ADVECTED IN AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME FREEZING FOG IN THE INTERIOR. THE LATEST CAMS, ESPECIALLY
THE 12Z HRRR HAVE US SOCKED IN THROUGH 12Z. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED STARTING 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10AM TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
NEAR THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PASSES WITH SOME MIDLEVEL ENERGY.
THIS FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING MAINLY RAINFALL TO THE AREA, BUT
THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MIXED PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR AND AREAS TO THE EAST.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY. MOST GUIDANCE DO NOT HAVE THE FRONT MAKING IT IN AT THE
SURFACE BEFORE NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
WARM FRONT AT 850MB WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG AN AXIS OF FGEN
THAT SEEMS TO BE WELL-MODELED IN 12Z CAMS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
HAPPEN ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS 850MB FGEN AXIS, BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING AROUND 0.15 TO 0.5" OF QPF SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH HIGHER
TOTALS NORTH. PWATS WILL PEAK AROUND 0.8" WHICH IS JUST ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO SPC'S SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY PAGE.
THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AT THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE
EVENT WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, THE 540 DAM
LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A WEAKENING WARM
NOSE ALOFT AS THE PRECIP TAPERS WEST TO EAST. TEMPS AT THE SURFACE
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR AND AREAS EAST BEFORE THE PRECIP SHUTS OFF. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN, SLEET,
AND/OR SNOW TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE LOSE THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIP ENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LOW, SHOULD IT OCCUR. BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY SNOW APPEAR TO BE NEW LONDON COUNTY AND THE FAR
EASTERN END OF LONG ISLAND.
BY WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING, WE SHOULD BE DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A WARM FRONT WILL LINGER RIGHT NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND GET PULLED AWAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL GET WHICH WILL EFFECT PRECIP TYPES. FOR NOW STUCK CLOSE TO
THE NBM WHICH BRINGS RAIN TO THE COAST AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FARTHER INLAND. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 4
THERE IS IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE
THIS FAR OUT WITH A COASTAL LOW IMPACTING THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT GET PUSHED
OUT OF THE AREA, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN FROM THE
NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST AT IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA.
WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM
PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH STRENGTH,
TIMING AND TRACK AS IS NORMAL THIS FAR OUT. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
TALK SPECIFICS FOR QPF AND SNOW AMOUNT, BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE MEAN QPF FROM THE NBM VERSION 4.3 AND 5.0 HAVE BOTH BEEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING THE LAST 120 HOURS AND ARE CURRENTLY RIGHT
AROUND 0.75 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY, LOOKING AT THE LATEST LREF MEMBER
PLUMES FOR QPF, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE QPF IS ABOUT 0.35 TO 0.40 ACROSS
THE AREA WITH NOTICEABLE CLUSTERING OF MEMBERS AROUND AN INCH. THESE
VALUES INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL IS AT LEAST THERE FOR A WARNING
LEVEL (6+ INCHES) SNOWFALL.
ONE THING TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF'S FLATTER AND LESS INTENSE SOLUTION.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
SPECIFICS DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IRONED OUT.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THEN APPROACHES OVERNIGHT BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
MOST CITY AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO
VFR AS OF 20Z, BUT THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND 03Z AT THE
CITY TERMINALS, THEN LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BETWEEN 06-08Z. RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS,
ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING MVFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
EASTERN TERMINALS, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SURROUNDING
ANY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SW WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE IN RAIN AT THE
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KSWF.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ON ALL WATERS 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH
10AM TOMORROW FOR DENSE FOG BRINGING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 SM.
OCEAN SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 5 FEET DUE TO A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEAST SWELL WHICH WILL BE SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING INTO LATE TONIGHT A SCA
REMAINS ISSUED ON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS DROP
BELOW 5 FT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT DO RETURN BACK TO 5 FT BY THU
MORNING. OCEAN SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN THU
NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH 5 FT SEAS. QUIET CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN WINDS AND WAVES POTENTIALLY PICK UP AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES BY.
IF THIS LOW TRENDS CLOSER TO THE AREA THEN EXPECTED WIND AND WAVE
FORECAST TO INCREASE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NYZ069>075-176-178.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...BR/JT
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...BR/JT
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