021
FXUS61 KOKX 181244
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS
MORNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DENSE FOG ON THE LAND AND WATER WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF BLACK ICE POSSIBLE.
2) MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
3) RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
4) POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WARM FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE SNOWPACK FOG HAS BECOME
WIDESPREAD, WITH AREAS OF DENSE. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
THIS MORNING VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ALTHOUGH FOG
WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST. AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO AREA AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MOISTURE WILL FREEZE ON THE COLDER SURFACES WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST AS TEMPERATURES
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES RISE THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND
AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT, WITH PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY THIS
MORNING. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT, AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING AND PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A FEW
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. AS COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD, AND MOVE THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SNOW MIXES IN, POSSIBLY SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE ENDING BY
LATE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE LINGER IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND THEN PHASES WITH THE
NORTHERN ENERGY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN LOW MERGES WITH
THE NORTHERN LOW, DEEPENING AND BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW. THIS
LOW WILL THEN BE SLOW TO TRACK EAST AS DOWNSTREAM WEAK UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY CHANGES OVER TO PLAIN RAIN
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING FRIDAY AS THE LOW AND WARM
FRONT SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT TRACKS AS WEAK PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP,
POTENTIALLY KEEPING THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT
THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN DURING FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4
THERE IS IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE
THIS FAR OUT WITH A COASTAL LOW IMPACTING THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT GET PUSHED
OUT OF THE AREA, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN FROM THE
NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST AT IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA.
WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM
PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH STRENGTH,
TIMING AND TRACK AS IS NORMAL THIS FAR OUT. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
TALK SPECIFICS FOR QPF AND SNOW AMOUNT, BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE MEAN QPF FROM THE NBM VERSION 4.3 AND 5.0 HAVE BOTH BEEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING THE LAST 120 HOURS AND ARE CURRENTLY RIGHT
AROUND 0.75 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY, LOOKING AT THE LATEST LREF MEMBER
PLUMES FOR QPF, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE QPF IS ABOUT 0.35 TO 0.40 ACROSS
THE AREA WITH NOTICEABLE CLUSTERING OF MEMBERS AROUND AN INCH. THESE
VALUES INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL IS AT LEAST THERE FOR A WARNING
LEVEL (6+ INCHES) SNOWFALL.
ONE THING TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF'S FLATTER AND LESS INTENSE SOLUTION.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
SPECIFICS DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IRONED OUT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES OVERNIGHT, IMPACTING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
SUB VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VLIFR TO MVFR THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD
ONLY IMPROVE TO IFR TO MVFR. HOWEVER THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
WHERE VLIFR MAY HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE AFTER 08Z THURSDAY FROM EAST TO WEST.
RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN TAPERS THIS EVENING, HOWEVER SNOW OR
SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN BEFORE ENDING, ESPECIALLY N AND W
OF NYC. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
WINDS REMAIN 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TODAY, BECOMING NE INTO
TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
VLIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MID WED AM.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH CHANGING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AT THE CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KSWF.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 10 AM EST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS OCEAN SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FEET.
OCEAN SEAS BUILD BACK TO NEAR 5 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW, AND A SCA HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
OCEAN SEAS THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN THU NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH 5 FT SEAS. QUIET CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WINDS AND WAVES POTENTIALLY PICK UP AS A
COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. IF THIS LOW TRENDS CLOSER TO THE AREA
THEN EXPECTED WIND AND WAVE FORECAST TO INCREASE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ069>075-
176-178.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...MET/JT
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MET/JT
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