946
FXUS61 KOKX 181757
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1257 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE SINCE THE LAST FORECAST
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARM FRONT BRINGS MAINLY CONTINUED LIGHT RAINFALL INTO EARLY
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG CLEARING BY THE MORNING.
2) ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
3) POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WARM FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA OR JUST OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTH, AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT, THE WARM NOSE OF THE FRONT AT 850 MB
EXTENDS INTO THE NEW YORK CAPITAL REGION INTO SE MASSACHUSETTS.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TODAY ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ALOFT AND PWATS
0.8 TO 0.9", JUST ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER SPC'S SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY PAGE.
AN 850 MB FGEN AXIS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED TODAY, JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. A WAVE OF
PRECIP THAT ADVANCED NORTH THIS MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO PASS
NORTH, WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING IN ITS WAKE. DUE TO THE
WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT, MUCH OF THE PRECIP TODAY WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD RAIN.
HOWEVER, THE WARM FRONT, BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, WILL PUSH
BACK SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MAIN AXIS
OF PRECIP GETTING SHIFTED BACK INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE 540 DAM THICKNESS LINE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS, ALONG WITH THE SHRINKING
WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE COOLING TO BELOW
FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR, COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FOR A BRIEF 3-6 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS WEST TO EAST IN
RESPONSE TO DRIER AIR FILTERING IN.
OVERALL, CONTINUED QPF THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WILL EQUATE TO AROUND
0.25" TO 0.5" WITH AREAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO 0.10" TO 0.2". A
GLAZE OF ICE OR A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR CT, SE
COASTAL CT, AND MORE QUESTIONABLY THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND.
PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA TO OUR SOUTH. BY TOMORROW MORNING, WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ANY
FOG.
DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH TAKES OVER THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A STACKED COLORADO LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND MOISTURE FOLLOWS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF
THE LOW TO THE EAST AND PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EVENTUALLY PHASES WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET STREAK AND DEVELOPS INTO ITS OWN DEFINED SURFACE
LOW AS IT DEPARTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BEGIN AS WINTRY PRECIP EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THEN, WITH THE ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT, MUCH OF THE COAST
AND SOUTHERN LOCALES WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
SOME MIX REMAINING IN THE INTERIOR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER WEST TO EAST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, ENDING EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN, SOME CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM'S EXIT.
TIMING OF PRECIP TYPE CHANGES ARE STILL LOW TO MODERATE IN
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN WARM FRONT PLACEMENT AND TIMING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM A COASTAL
LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE EAST COAST, BUT
LOCATION, TRACK AND TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHILE THE BULK OF
THE OVERNIGHT 00Z AND 06Z GUIDANCE TRENDED FARTHER OFFSHORE
(DRIER SOLUTION) A FEW OF THE AVAILABLE 12Z MODELS, LIKE THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, HAVE TRENDED BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST (SNOWIER
SOLUTION). GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE BACK AND FORTH OF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, STUCK CLOSE TO THE NBM SOLUTION WITH NO
REAL DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNT FORECASTS. NBM PROBABILITIES IN QPF AND SNOW AMOUNT HAVE
LOWERED ACROSS THE BOARD, BUT THIS IS BASED ON OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE.
THESE PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FUTURE NBM RUNS
GIVEN THE SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SOME 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LATEST NBM 48 HOUR SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES OF
WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL (6+ INCHES) IS ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY.
SUB VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VLIFR TO MVFR THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD
ONLY IMPROVE TO IFR TO MVFR. HOWEVER THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
WHERE VLIFR MAY HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE AFTER 08Z THURSDAY FROM EAST TO WEST.
RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN TAPERS THIS EVENING, HOWEVER SNOW OR
SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN BEFORE ENDING, ESPECIALLY N AND W
OF NYC. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
WINDS REMAIN 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TODAY, BECOMING NE INTO
TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
VLIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH CHANGING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AT THE CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KSWF.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA SEAS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THEN 5 FT SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE ON OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF TOMORROW. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. OCEAN SEAS JUMP
BACK UP AGAIN TO 5 FT FRIDAY INTO A PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WIND AND WAVE FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW CLOSE IT
PASSES AND HOW MUCH IT CAN STRENGTHEN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL NON OCEAN WATERS AND GALE CONDITIONS ON OCEAN
WATERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-006-
009-010.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ069>075-
176-178.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...BR/JT
AVIATION...20
MARINE...BR/JT
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