430
FXUS61 KOKX 041504
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1004 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/GLAZE OF ICE FOR
INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT AT THE ONSET
THURSDAY MORNING.
2) SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OTHERWISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE TRI-STATE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY BE
IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE, BUT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY MOISTEN QUICKLY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN RISING AS THE PRECIP BEGINS
MOVING IN, BUT THERE IS CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THIS LEADS TO A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FOR THESE INTERIOR LOCATIONS,
MAINLY AROUND AND A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
THEN STEADILY RISE ABOVE FREEZING THE REST OF THE MORNING. IF
ANY ICE ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR, IT WILL BE LIMITED TO A GLAZE
OF A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY ICE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, SO NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE APPROACHING MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HELP BRING
FAIRLY DEEP LIFT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF OVERRUNNING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND LIKELY DEVELOPS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS
TO ONE INCH.
THE RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, SO THE REST OF THE DAY WILL
LIKELY END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT GENERALLY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST LATE THIS WEEK SHOULD FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHED NORTH AHEAD
OF A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE US/CANADA
BORDER AS WELL AS FROM BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING. LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE WELL NW OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW LIKELY POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. A BIT
CONCERNED THIS MAY BE OVER DONE BASED ON MUCH OF THE ENERGY
PASSING TO OUR NW. WILL LEAVE THE POPS CLOSE TO THE NBM FOR NOW.
THE COLD FRONT LIKELY STALLS AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
SIGNALS THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE OTHERS WASH OUT THE FRONT DUE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES START TO RISE ON SATURDAY, BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY FOR THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S WITH
POTENTIAL OF LOW 60S WEST OF THE NYC METRO. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NYC
METRO/HUDSON RIVER CORRIDOR ON WEST WITH 50S TO THE EAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW INFLUENCE.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN UNTIL THE EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT, PASSING TOMORROW.
A BIT MORE CONCERNED THAT LOW CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, SPECIFICALLY KSWF. FORECAST IS FOR
VFR TO DEVELOP IN THE 16Z-17Z TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING THAT WILL HAPPEN. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z. AFTER 00Z, CIGS LOW TO MVFR/IFR, POSSIBLY LIFR LATE
TONIGHT. WE REMAIN IFR/LIFR INTO THE DAY TOMORROW WITH RAIN
BEGINNING AT 12Z TOMORROW.
WINDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW AROUND 5KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT GENERAL WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN FROM THE
S-ESE THIS AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING CATEGORIES. WHILE VFR IS FORECAST
UNTIL 00Z, ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE MOMENTS OF MVFR TODAY
AND THE TIMING OF LOWERING CEILINGS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY
2-4 HOURS.
FOG MAY BE ADDED INTO THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT IF CHANCES FOR IT
INCREASE, BUT FOR NOW, FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
WITH VFR MORE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: MVFR/VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS (5-6 FT SEAS) ARE EXPECTED ON THE
OCEAN WATERS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN, THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING DUE TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. 5 FT OCEAN SEAS COULD LINGER INTO
A PORTION OF SUNDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...BR/DW
MARINE...DS
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