641
FXUS61 KOKX 041920
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
220 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
NUISANCE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
2) SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A NEARLY STALLED
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND KEEP CONDITIONS WET
AND UNSETTLED INTO FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THE RAIN, COULD SEE SOME LOCALES RADIATE DOWN LOWER THAN
FORECAST TONIGHT GIVEN THE SNOWPACK AND NEAR CALM WINDS EXPECTED,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF S CT. ALSO WITH THIS, AREAS
OF FOG LIKELY DEVELOP, AND COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.
THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RAIN
DEVELOPS INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK,
QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE REGION. A LULL IN THE
STEADIEST OF THE RAIN LIKELY SETS IN BY MID AFTERNOON, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE RAIN TAPERS
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING, AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
LIKELY PERSISTS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT THIS BEING A PREDOMINANTLY RAIN EVENT,
THOUGH CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ZR AT THE
ONSET IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF THE LOHUD OR S CT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, ESPECIALLY EARLY.
THIS APPEARS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED WERE IT TO EVEN OCCUR. MORE
LIKELY, A CHILLY PLAIN RAIN DEVELOPS, CONTINUING MUCH OF THE DAY
AND EVENING.
GUIDANCE HAS TICKED UP JUST A BIT WITH TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE
LAST FEW CYCLES, WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FALLING ACROSS THE REGION
OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD OR SO. MEANWHILE, NOHRSC ANALYSIS INDICATES
A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SWE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION, IN LINE
WITH A SNOW CORE HERE AT KOKX THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING 1.2 INCHES.
COUPLED WITH THE RESULTANT SNOWMELT, THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
SOME ENHANCED PONDING AND SATURATED GROUNDS, ESPECIALLY WHERE
DRAINS MAY BE OBSTRUCTED BY SNOWPACKS OR OTHERWISE BLOCKED.
THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF NUISANCE FLOODING.
HOURLY RATES WITH THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE CONVECTIVELY HIGH
HOWEVER, AND THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. WATER LEVELS
ALONG THE FLASHIEST CREEKS AND STREAMS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR
EXCEED MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS, BUT FLOODING ALONG LARGER STEM
WATERWAYS IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS PROMOTES AN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PULLS NORTH. NBM
REMAINS WITH LIKELY POPS BUT IT MAY CONTINUE TO BE OVERDONE AS RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND WASHES OUT AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MORE PERSISTENT SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE INTENSIFYING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SW FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN AND INLAND AREAS MAY
CLIMB INTO THE 60S WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY HITTING 70. COASTAL
AREAS AND LONG ISLAND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH THE COLD WATER
MODERATING THE AIRMASS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL WAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MAINLY VFR TO START WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF, WHICH COULD BE IN
AND OUT OF IFR. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
WINDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 5 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME ENE TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP
SOME AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
THERE IS LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES, BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: IFR/LIFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, WITH VFR
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY: POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FT GRADUALLY LOWERING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM.
INTO THIS EVENING, AREAS OF FOG LIKELY DEVELOP ON AT LEAST THE
OCEAN, AND COULD BECOME DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO
NEAR OR LESS THAN 1 NM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOULD AN ADVISORY BE NECESSARY.
WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY ABATE THURSDAY, BEFORE PASSING LOW
PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH BUILDS SEAS TOWARD 5 FT ON THE OCEAN
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH E GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. WINDS LIGHTEN
FRIDAY, BUT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY HANG NEAR 5 FT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AT THE LEAST.
SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY ON THE OCEAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25KT AND
SEAS 5-7 FEET. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY BE SLOW TO FALL ON SUNDAY BUT SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...DR/MW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR/MW
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