625
FXUS61 KOKX 051805
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
105 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
NUISANCE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. LOW
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
2) SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UNSETTLED AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES INTERACT WITH A NEARLY STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING, BRIEFLY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THERMAL FORCING WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE AND SE CANADA
TRIES TO NOSE SW INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE RAIN MAY BECOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH OF FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY, BUT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL WEDGE OF COLD AIR LOCKED IN BENEATH WARMER AIR ALOFT.
THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR COLDER SURFACE AIR DRAINING SOUTHWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
PROBABILITIES FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN HAVE TICKED UP JUST A BIT FOR
SOME ELEVATED AREAS IN ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR S CT. HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES ARE OVERALL STILL BELOW 30 PERCENT AND MAINLY PLAIN
RAIN IS STILL FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOCATIONS DROP TO 32
DEGREES AS THE RAIN SLOWLY TAPERS OFF TONIGHT, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY IMPACTS. THIS IS DUE TO THE RAIN PROCESS LIMITING
ANY IMPACTS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WOULD LIKE SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR ANY IMPACTS TO ROADS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL TO
32 DEGREES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE HWO ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES AND CONTINUE MONITOR
GUIDANCE TRENDS TODAY. A SHORT-FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR SOME THESE INTERIOR LOCATIONS IF TEMPERATURES
SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT TREND TOWARDS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. MEANWHILE, NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A GENERAL
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SWE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION, IN LINE WITH A SNOW
CORE HERE AT THE OFFICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING 1.2 INCHES.
COUPLED WITH THE RESULTANT SNOWMELT, THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD PONDING
AND POCKETS OF POOR DRAINAGE/NUISANCE FLOODING. NO FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED SINCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT BE HIGH AND SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 0.25"/HR.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TO START SATURDAY. GUIDANCE MAY BE WARMING TEMPERATURES A
BIT TOO QUICKLY GIVEN THERE IS NOT A STRONG PUSH OF SW FLOW
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START RISING INTO THE 40S AND THEN GRADUALLY
PUSH INTO THE 50S FROM THE NYC METRO NORTH AND WEST IN THE
EVENING AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY STAY IN THE 40S DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW INFLUENCE.
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE NBM CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME, BUT
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MOST ORGANIZED LIFT IS PROGGED TO
PASS TO WELL TO OUR NW. SHOWERS MAY END UP SCATTERED OVERALL WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND WASHES OUT AS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A MORE PERSISTENT SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTENSIFYING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SW FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE THE 50S WITH POTENTIAL OF LOWER 60S FROM
NYC ON NORTH AND WEST. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH OF 61 AT CENTRAL
PARK ON SUNDAY VERIFIES, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TEMPERATURE 60
DEGREES OR HIGHER SINCE NOVEMBER 9, 2025. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE NYC METRO MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S. COASTAL AREAS AND LONG ISLAND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S
WITH THE COLD WATER MODERATING THE AIRMASS. IF THERE IS MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION, WARMER AIR COULD PUSH
FURTHER EAST UNTIL THE OCCURRENCE OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF
LOG ISLAND, EXITS TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING, AND PASSES
THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH FRIDAY.
GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE LOCAL VLIFR.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE AND POSSIBLE HEAVY SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
A NE TO N FLOW GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BE STRONGER, AROUND 12 KT, AT THE NYC
TERMINALS AND KGON TONIGHT. ALSO, GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE OCCASIONAL. ONLY KGON MAY
HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, 00Z TO AROUND 05Z,
MAINLY AT KEWR AND KJFK.
TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
IS UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON - FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR BECOMING IFR WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY: IFR, MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AT NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15 -20 KT AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR.
MONDAY - TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING E FLOW TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KT
ON THE OCEAN, LI BAYS, AND LI SOUND E OF THE CT RIVER. THESE
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE
OCEAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND ON THE LI BAYS/E LI SOUND, TONIGHT
THROUGH 10AM FRIDAY. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT EAST
OF MORICHES INLET AND THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON THE OCEAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25KT
AND SEAS 5-7 FEET. SEAS MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY, BUT SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DR/DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS
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