636
FXUS61 KOKX 051935
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
235 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR POTENTIAL ICY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF NUISANCE
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
2) LOCALIZED ICY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON SOME UNTREATED
SURFACES ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR S CT AND THE LOHUD VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
3) SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT.
ANY LULL IN STEADY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT
ROUND MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
THE RAIN MAY FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT, AND COUPLED FROM THE RAIN EARLIER TODAY, AS WELL AS
ADDED LIQUID FROM SNOWMELT, COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF NUISANCE
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO CAN'T ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH A HINT OF
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THOUGH, AT OR UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
PER HOUR, AND THE RISK FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING FROM THIS IS LOW.
TOTAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AVERAGES AROUND AN INCH.
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STEADIEST EXITED BY SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH DUE TO A LOW LEVEL WEDGE
OF COLD AIR LOCKED IN BENEATH WARMER AIR ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOME PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S THIS AFTERNOON
FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THIS EVENING, AIDED BY WEAK CAA
IN LIGHT NE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN. MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND SEE ONLY PLAIN RAIN TONIGHT.
IT'S POSSIBLE HOWEVER A FEW POCKETS IN THE ELEVATED INTERIOR
COULD DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AS THE PRECIP
IS FALLING, LEADING TO THE RAIN FREEZING ON CONTACT WITH THE
COLDEST SURFACES. THERMAL PROFILES IN SOUNDINGS APPEAR ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE AT BEST IN THIS OCCURRING AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE GENERALLY RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE COLDER, ICIER SOLUTIONS OFFERED IN SOME GUIDANCE,
AND WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ONLY LOCALIZED ICING CONCERNS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HOISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SOLIDLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE NBM CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME,
BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MOST ORGANIZED LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS TO WELL TO OUR NW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES DEAMPLIFIES. SHOWERS MAY END UP MORE SCATTERED
OVERALL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY (DESPITE
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT), AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY, DECREASING CLOUDS AND LACK OF
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
LOWER 60S IN NYC AND NE NJ. UPPER 50 TO AROUND 60 ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INLAND S CT. UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ARE
EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO THE COLD OCEAN AND SOUND
WATERS. GUIDANCE MAY BE WARMING TEMPERATURES A BIT TOO QUICKLY GIVEN
THERE IS NOT A STRONG PUSH OF SW FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
EVENING.
A MORE PERSISTENT SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE INTENSIFYING TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALMOST LIKE A BERMUDA
HIGH TYPE SETUP. THIS SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE THE 60S, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH OF 64 AT CENTRAL PARK ON SUNDAY
VERIFIES, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST 60 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OR HIGHER
SINCE NOVEMBER 9, 2025. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEST OF THE NYC METRO MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
COASTAL AREAS AND LONG ISLAND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH THE COLD
WATER MODERATING THE AIRMASS. IF THERE IS MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION, WARMER AIR COULD PUSH FURTHER EAST
UNTIL THE OCCURRENCE OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF
LOG ISLAND, EXITS TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING, AND PASSES
THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH FRIDAY.
GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE LOCAL VLIFR.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE AND POSSIBLE HEAVY SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
A NE TO N FLOW GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BE STRONGER, AROUND 12 KT, AT THE NYC
TERMINALS AND KGON TONIGHT. ALSO, GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE OCCASIONAL. ONLY KGON MAY
HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, 00Z TO AROUND 05Z,
MAINLY AT KEWR AND KJFK.
TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
IS UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON - FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR BECOMING IFR WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY: IFR, MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AT NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15 -20 KT AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR.
MONDAY - TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
INCREASING E FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 25 KT
ON THE OCEAN, BACK BAYS, AND LI SOUND E OF THE CT RIVER. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT ON THESE WATERS AT 6PM THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS LIGHTEN FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OCEAN SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON THE OCEAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25KT
AND SEAS 5-7 FEET. SEAS MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY, BUT SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JP/DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/DR
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