050
FXUS61 KOKX 060718
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLOUDS LINGER WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
2) A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOWS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMN AND THUS CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. OVERCAST
SKIES WITH LOW STRATUS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AT LEAST UNTIL A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CAN GET THROUGH
THE REGION. THAT PROBABLY WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL A COLD FRONT GETS
THROUGH SOME TIME SUNDAY MORNING IN ALL LIKELIHOOD. BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT CAN GET EAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY LOOK FOR THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
A CLOUDY DAY ON SATURDAY. THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS SHOULD APPROACH FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. FINALLY SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN FINALLY IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET
ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE WATER.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY (DESPITE
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT), AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY, DECREASING CLOUDS AND LACK OF
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
LOWER 60S IN NYC AND NE NJ, WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INLAND S CT. UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ARE
EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO THE COLD OCEAN AND SOUND
WATERS. GUIDANCE MAY BE WARMING TEMPERATURES A BIT TOO QUICKLY GIVEN
THERE IS NOT A STRONG PUSH OF SW FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
EVENING.
A MORE PERSISTENT SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE INTENSIFYING TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALMOST LIKE A BERMUDA
HIGH TYPE SETUP. THIS SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE THE 60S, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH AT CENTRAL PARK ON SUNDAY
VERIFIES, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST 60 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OR HIGHER
SINCE NOVEMBER 9, 2025. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEST OF THE NYC METRO MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
COASTAL AREAS AND LONG ISLAND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH THE COLD
WATER MODERATING THE AIRMASS. IF THERE IS MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION, WARMER AIR COULD PUSH FURTHER EAST
UNTIL THE OCCURRENCE OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. INTO
THE MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
INTO TONIGHT.
GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR PERSISTS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH 7-9Z, TAKING LONGEST TO CLEAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THE REST OF THE
MORNING. SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT NYC TERMINALS, BUT IT REMAINS VERY
POSSIBLE CONDITIONS REMAINS IFR ALL DAY. ANY IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON, LIKELY FALLS BACK TO IFR BY EVENING.
IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
NE WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
REMAINING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND MAY BEGIN TO
SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BY SATURDAY MORNING.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCE OF LIFR
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: IFR OR LOWER WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.
SATURDAY: MAINLY IFR WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY AT
NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. SW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TOWARDS LATE MORNING FOR THE EASTERN NON-OCEAN WATERS, OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OUT ON THE OCEAN MAINLY DUE TO
SEAS FOR THE WESTERN OCEAN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. OCEAN SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF FIRE ISLAND AND
THUS SMALL CRAFTS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOST OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 06Z. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FURTHER INTO SAT AM EAST OF MORICHES INLET. OTHERWISE SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE OCEAN, AND POTENTIALLY THE
SOUTH SHORE AND EASTERN BAYS OF LI FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS MAY EXTEND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY FOR THE OCEAN, WITH MORE
MARGINAL SEAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT AROUND 4
FEET. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ332-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JE/DS
AVIATION...DS/MW
MARINE...JE/DS
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