080
FXUS61 KOKX 061515
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1015 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLOUDS LINGER WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
2) A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOWS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMN AND THUS CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. OVERCAST
SKIES WITH LOW STRATUS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AT LEAST UNTIL A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CAN GET THROUGH
THE REGION. THAT PROBABLY WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL A COLD FRONT GETS
THROUGH SOME TIME SUNDAY MORNING IN ALL LIKELIHOOD. BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT CAN GET EAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY LOOK FOR THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
A CLOUDY DAY ON SATURDAY. THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS SHOULD APPROACH FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. FINALLY SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN FINALLY IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET
ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE WATER.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
(DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT), AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY, DECREASING
CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S IN NYC AND NE NJ, WITH
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
INLAND S CT. UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ARE EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL
AREAS THANKS TO THE COLD OCEAN AND SOUND WATERS. GUIDANCE MAY BE
WARMING TEMPERATURES A BIT TOO QUICKLY GIVEN THERE IS NOT A
STRONG PUSH OF SW FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING.
A MORE PERSISTENT SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTENSIFYING TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALMOST LIKE
A BERMUDA HIGH TYPE SETUP. THIS SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE THE
60S, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGH AT CENTRAL PARK ON SUNDAY VERIFIES, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST
60 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OR HIGHER SINCE NOVEMBER 9, 2025. BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE NYC METRO
MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. COASTAL AREAS AND
LONG ISLAND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH THE COLD WATER
MODERATING THE AIRMASS. IF THERE IS MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND DIRECTION, WARMER AIR COULD PUSH FURTHER EAST UNTIL
THE OCCURRENCE OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH INTO TONIGHT.
MAINLY IFR OR LOW MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
NE WINDS WEAKEN TO BELOW 10 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, REMAINING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF
THE SE-S AFTER 15Z SATURDAY.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR TODAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND LIFR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: MAINLY IFR WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY AT
NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. SW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS HAS
BECOME WEAKER, AND WIND GUSTS AND SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SCA WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WAS
CANCELLED. AND WITH GUSTS BELOW 25 KT ON THE LONG ISLAND BAYS
AND FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, THAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET, MAINLY DUE TO SEAS, INTO A GOOD PORTION
OF TONIGHT, WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO SAT AM EAST
OF MORICHES INLET. OTHERWISE SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE OCEAN, AND POTENTIALLY THE SOUTH
SHORE AND EASTERN BAYS OF LI FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS MAY EXTEND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY FOR THE OCEAN, WITH MORE
MARGINAL SEAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT AROUND 4
FEET. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING TUESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
DISCUSSION...JE/DS/MET
AVIATION...DR/DS
MARINE...JE/DS/MET
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