655
FXUS61 KOKX 071015
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
515 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED ON THE OCEAN, LI SOUND AND LI BAYS,
THROUGH 10 AM. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR LOCALLY
DENSE FOG ON LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT UNTIL 10 AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO A PORTION OF SUNDAY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
2) A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
3) A STRONG FRONTAL MAY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEDGE
OF COLD AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS COURTESY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT. AREAS
OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED AN
SPS FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG
THROUGH 10 AM. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO INCLUDE THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. THE FRONT LIKELY DOES NOT LIFT ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE RISING DEW POINTS OVER THE COLDER NEARBY
WATERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST,
ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ONE NEGATING FACTOR
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE FROM INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SOME
TURBULENT MIXING ABOVE THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST, A SW COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ENERGY
PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS ALSO LACKING
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AROUND 100 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(MUCAPE). HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER, BUT AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NOT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM ANY SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S AND MAY START
APPROACHING 50 DEGREES WEST OF THE NYC METRO THIS EVENING.
WARMER AIR SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREAWIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CALENDAR DAY HIGHS FOR THE 7TH MAY
OCCUR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
HAVE ALSO HELD ONTO A LOW PROBABILITY FOR LINGERING RAIN ON
SUNDAY, MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A
GROWING SIGNAL FOR THE REGION TO LIE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PASSING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE ARE HINTING AT HANGING ONTO SOME LIGHT RAIN EVEN
INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. THE NBM
BROUGHT POPS DOWN TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
FELT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL WITH LINGERING LIFT AND
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A 20-30 PERCENT POP NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO MID 60S FROM THE NYC METRO ON NW.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A PERSISTENT SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL LARGELY
BE THE 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE NYC METRO
MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. COASTAL AREAS AND
LONG ISLAND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW INFLUENCE OFF THE COLD OCEAN. RECENT HISTORY IN THE LAST
FEW YEARS WITH EARLY SEASON WARM AIR MASSES HAVE VERIFIED WARMER
VS MODEL GUIDANCE, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
TREND EVEN HIGHER. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT TO GET INTO THE 60S IF THERE IS
MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT OR WEAK FLOW EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES/POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORDS FOR TUESDAY MARCH 11 AND
WEDNESDAY MARCH 12.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TIMING OF EXACTLY WHEN PRECIP WILL BE MOST LIKELY IS
STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS (NBM) INDICATES
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWN ON
THURSDAY, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. BY FRIDAY,
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATER
TODAY.
FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE GOTTEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWER FLIGHT CATS
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. IFR AND LIFR, WITH POCKETS OF VLIFR
AT TIMES. LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MORE EASTERN TERMINALS WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG. LIMITED IMPROVEMENT
DURING TODAY, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW OF REMAINING IFR OR LOWER,
THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON AT A FEW NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
BOTTOM OUT INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIFR AND VLIFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES WITH AN ISOLATED TS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 04-06Z SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW TS IS NOT REFLECTED
IN TAFS.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SE, THEN S LATE IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10
KT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE A BIT INTO THE EVENING AROUND 10KT WITH
SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER AT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH JUST YET TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES. TIMING OF ANY
VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT REMAINS LOW TODAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: IFR AND LIFR, OR LOWER. SHOWERS ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT. SW GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN THE MORNING, THEN VFR POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
DAY.
MONDAY: VFR. SW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR INLAND, SUB VFR MORE LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE NY HARBOR
UNTIL 10AM. THERE IS A CHANCE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER IF VISIBILITIES DO NOT IMPROVE.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING 5 FT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THIS MORNING. THE
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BEFORE INCREASING THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT ON ALL OCEAN ZONES. THESE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, OCEAN SEAS WILL LINGER
AROUND 5 FT INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AND POSSIBLY EAST OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS ON THE EASTERN LI BAYS AND
EASTERN LI SOUND MAY COME CLOSE TO 25 KT TONIGHT, BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN SCA FOR THESE WATERS AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN END UP BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. S-SW FLOW INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING THE NEXT POTENTIAL OF SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY MARCH 11 AND
WEDNESDAY MARCH 12
TUESDAY MARCH 11:
KEWR: 81/2016
KBDR: 70/2006
KNYC: 79/2016
KLGA: 78/2016
KJFK: 71/2006
KISP: 73/2016
WEDNESDAY MARCH 12:
KEWR: 75/2021
KBDR: 67/1977
KNYC: 79/2016
KLGA: 70/1977
KJFK: 68/2016
KISP: 68/1977
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DS
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