287
FXUS61 KOKX 072354
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
654 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES AND
MOST LAND ZONES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
2) A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
3) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO LATE THURSDAY. WITH IT COMES A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. STAYED WITH NBM POPS
(60-70%), WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH, BUT THERE IS WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT (85H-70 LAPSE RATES 6-7C) AND A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST CAMS SHOW ANYWHERE
FROM SCATTERED TO A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT
DISJOINTED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
HOWEVER, THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ADVECTION FOG EVENT
AS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVES ACROSS THE COLD NEAR SHORE WATERS.
IN ADDITION, THE AIRMASS IS STRONGLY INVERTED WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AND SOME
DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE 40S TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFT LIFTS THROUGH OR JUST WASHES OUT. EVEN WHEN THE
COLD FRONT PASSES FAR EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY,
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR, AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AT THE COAST.
THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARITIME INFLUENCE SOMEWHAT IN
CHECK. A SEABREEZE SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WELL BELOW RECORD HIGHS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A PERSISTENT SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL LARGELY
BE THE 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE NYC METRO
MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. COASTAL AREAS AND
LONG ISLAND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW INFLUENCE OFF THE COLD OCEAN. RECENT HISTORY IN THE LAST
FEW YEARS WITH EARLY SEASON WARM AIR MASSES HAVE VERIFIED WARMER
VS MODEL GUIDANCE, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
TREND EVEN HIGHER.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORDS FOR TUESDAY MARCH 11 AND
WEDNESDAY MARCH 12.
KEY MESSAGE 3
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE IN
THE GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY REGION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3-1.6". THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THEN ADVANCES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO EASTERN QUEBEC INTO LATE
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY ON
THURSDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE
WITH FROPA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF FROPA STILL
VARIES AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE BY 12 HOURS. IT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
EARLY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, HAVE STUCK WITH 13Z
NBM POPS, FOR NOW.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. WHILE CAPE VALUES ARE NOT AT ALL IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE IS
STILL SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO A
BRIEF WIND OF SUITABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY STRONG 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE IT STILL
ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY, AS A RESULT. SHOULD
IT BE TIMED FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING, ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE CITY QUICKLY COOL AS YOU MOVE EAST OF THE
CITY. SHOULD WE SEE THUNDERSTORMS, ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THEY FALL
APART ONCE THEY REACH NYC WITH COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR EAST OF NYC.
GIVEN FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS
AND GENEROUS SYNOPTIC LIFT, RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY COULD BRING WITH THEM SOME ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW, AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY
IF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOESN'T BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE REMAINS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR RAIN/SNOW AT THE
COAST WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE INTERIOR WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA. HOWEVER, THE WINDOW FOR THIS IS QUITE
NARROW GIVEN THE RAPIDLY DRYING AIR, SO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, AT THIS TIME.
A STRONG 45-60 KT LLJ HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, AIDED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT, MOVES ACROSS EARLY SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
IFR OR LOWER THROUGH MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY.
WINDS BELOW 10 KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, STARTING SOUTHERLY,
THEN VEERING SW BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT WSW-W FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 16-20KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY END UP TO 4-6 HOURS EARLIER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN TAFS.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
CATEGORICAL CHANGES.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. S-SW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. S WIND GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. SW-W WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT DURING THE
DAY. A CHANCE THAT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT NIGHT. MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT NIGHT. W WIND GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT AT
NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WARM, MOIST AIR MOVES ACROSS THE COOLER WATERS.
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WITH A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND
MARGINAL GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT MY
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL IMPACT COASTAL
WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON OCEAN WATERS AND POSSIBLE ON
NON-OCEAN WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY. WAVES WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 10-13 FT ON OCEAN WATERS.
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA, BUT 5 FT WAVES MAY LINGER.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY MARCH 11 AND
WEDNESDAY MARCH 12
TUESDAY MARCH 11:
KEWR: 81/2016
KBDR: 70/2006
KNYC: 79/2016
KLGA: 78/2016
KJFK: 71/2006
KISP: 73/2016
WEDNESDAY MARCH 12:
KEWR: 75/2021
KBDR: 67/1977
KNYC: 79/2016
KLGA: 70/1977
KJFK: 68/2016
KISP: 68/1977
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ070>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-104-106-
108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...BR/DW
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...BR/DW
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