024
FXUS61 KOKX 080616
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
116 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE LAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
3) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MORE
SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO END NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING REVOLVES AROUND DENSE FOG.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, WHICH
RUNS UNTIL 9 AM EDT. THERE HAS BEEN IMPROVEMENT WITH VISIBILITIES
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, PARTIALLY FROM THE SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA, AND FROM SOME TURBULENT MIXING ALOFT. DENSE FOG
CONTINUES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND PARTS OF COASTAL CT. THE TURBULENT
MIXING WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN AWAY
FROM THE COAST FROM A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND, BUT THIS MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE WARM FRONT FULLY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO WILL REMAIN
THROUGH DAY BREAK. HOWEVER, DO NOT WANT TO TRIM BACK THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY YET IN CASE VISIBILITIES DO EVENTUALLY COME BACK
DOWN. THIS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AND
WEAKENING FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE DENSE FOG CONTINUING ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT THROUGH DAY BREAK.
OTHERWISE, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED EARLY THIS
MORNING AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH WITH JET ENERGY
PASSING TO OUR NORTH, BUT EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FROM
NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S
EVEN FOR COASTAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 60S FROM THE NYC METRO ON
NORTH AND WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A PERSISTENT SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SW
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA RESULTING
IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE THE
60S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE NYC METRO MAY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. COASTAL CT, EASTERN LI, AND
SOUTH SHORE OF LI LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH MORE OF AN
ONSHORE FLOW INFLUENCE OFF THE COLD OCEAN. THERE IS A CHANCE
AREAS ACROSS WESTERN LI, ESPECIALLY NW SUFFOLK AND N NASSAU RISE
INTO THE 60S AS WELL. RECENT HISTORY IN THE LAST FEW YEARS WITH
EARLY SEASON WARM AIR MASSES HAVE VERIFIED WARMER VS MODEL
GUIDANCE, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES TREND
EVEN HIGHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORDS FOR TUESDAY MARCH 11 AND
WEDNESDAY MARCH 12.
KEY MESSAGE 3
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEMS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIE WELL
TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME
LIKELY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE STILL
VARIES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE NBM WITH PRECIP
PROBABILITIES, WHICH SHOW LIKELY SHOWERS MUCH OF THURSDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NARROWED DOWN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. THURSDAY DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASHOUT SINCE THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR, AND THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN BAND ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS UNCERTAIN AND HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. STRONG S FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVELS STABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
THERE IS A CHANCE HIGHS FOR THE DAY OCCUR EARLY ON IF THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLIER. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 50S, BUT
IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER INTERIOR LOCATIONS COULD BE A BIT
WARMER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S IN THE
EVENING, AND THEN POTENTIALLY THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S AT
NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE LINGERS A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE COLDER AIR IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASES WITH A MODEST LOW
LEVEL JET, BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS
SHOULD NEGATE ANY OF THE HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. GUSTS 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO END THE WEEK INTO THE
FIST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES APPROACHING AND MOVES ACROSS THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
IFR AND LOWER THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR THE CITY AND
WESTERN TERMINALS, AND LINGERING FOR EASTERN MOST TERMINALS UNTIL
MIDDAY.
WINDS BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING, STARTING SOUTHERLY, THEN
VEERING SW BY DAYBREAK. WINDS SHIFT WSW-W FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 16-20KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT UNTIL 08-10Z.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
UNCERTAINTY IN IMPROVEMENT IN CATEGORIES DURING THIS MORNING AND
COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. S-SW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. S WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. SW-W WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT DURING THE
DAY. A CHANCE THAT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT NIGHT. MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT NIGHT. W WIND GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT AT
NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 9 AM.
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE NY HARBOR, BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY AT THIS TIME.
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WITH A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND
MARGINAL GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT BY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY BEGINS TO INCREASE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN, WITH WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH POTENTIAL GALES DUE TO WARM
AIR MOVING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN. OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND POTENTIALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS MAY
BEGIN SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY MARCH 11 AND
WEDNESDAY MARCH 12
TUESDAY MARCH 11:
KEWR: 81/2016
KBDR: 70/2006
KNYC: 79/2016
KLGA: 78/2016
KJFK: 71/2006
KISP: 73/2016
WEDNESDAY MARCH 12:
KEWR: 75/2021
KBDR: 67/1977
KNYC: 79/2016
KLGA: 70/1977
KJFK: 68/2016
KISP: 68/1977
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ070>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-104-
106-108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JC/JE
MARINE...DS
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