934
FXUS61 KOKX 090643
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
243 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR EASTERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY MILD / WARMER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. NOTICEABLY COOLER MUCH OF THE TIME FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS / FOG DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHT TIME HOURS TO THE EAST FOR COASTAL SECTIONS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
2) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO AND
ENDING AS SOME WET SNOW THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
TO END NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES MARCH UP
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, REACHING +8 C LATER TODAY, +10 C TUESDAY,
AND APPROACH +12 C ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH MOST WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES, EXPECT AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TEMPERATURES TO FALL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WIND OFF
THE COOLER WATERS FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR
LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH OF THE NYC TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SFC WIND WILL MEAN MORE PLACES FURTHER EAST WILL
STAY WARMER FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS OFF THE COLDER WATERS,
LOOK FOR LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
FOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MID WEEK. ENOUGH RIDGING OUT
AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THUS LOWERED POPS DOWN FROM THE NBM. THE
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A GUSTY SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PIVOT THROUGH
FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING, SO AFTER A MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE
WINDS SWITCH QUICKLY TO THE NW ON THURSDAY WITH A CP AIR MASS MOVING
IN. RAIN IS LIKELY TO SWITCH OVER TO WET SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT PARALLEL
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO BEHAVE LIKE A
ANAFRONT. LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTY / BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FALL THROUGH THE
40S AND LIKELY INTO THE 30S BEFORE DAY'S END. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MOST
PLACES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
LIFR COND FOR KGON WITH FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AS A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS, KJFK AND KBDR COULD ALSO SEE
SHALLOW FOG WITH TEMPO IFR VSBY COND FROM ABOUT 10Z-14Z.
MOSTLY LIGHT/VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS LESS THAT 10 KT DAYTIME
MON WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
15-18 KT. A SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT KJFK IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
EXPAND TO KLGA/KTEB/KEWR BY LATE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. KJFK COULD SEE TEMPO IFR VSBY FROM
ABOUT 10Z-14Z. SE SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AFTER 22Z AT KEWR/KTEB.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. S WINDS G20KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON E OF THE NYC METROS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS LIKELY ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MVFR
OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE AT TIMES. S WINDS 10-15G20-25KT. LLWS LIKELY.
THURSDAY: RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE. SW WINDS
10-15G20KT EARLY, BECOMING W-NW 15-20G25KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT KGON WITH MVFR
COND STILL POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE VFR. W-NW WINDS 15-20G25KT IN THE
EVENING.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. S WINDS 10-15G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT: CHANCE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND. S
WINDS 10-15G20-25KT, BECOMING SW-W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS, ERN
SOUND, AND ERN BAYS UNTIL 8AM EDT THIS MORNING.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK FOR
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AS THE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY RETURN TO THE WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING ON A S TO SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MARCH 9TH AND
TUESDAY MARCH 10TH.
MONDAY MARCH 9TH:
EWR: 82/2016
BDR: 64/2021
NYC: 77/2016
LGA: 75/2016,2000
JFK: 67/1973
ISP: 68/2016
TUESDAY MARCH 10TH:
EWR: 81/2016
BDR: 70/2006
NYC: 79/2016
LGA: 78/2016
JFK: 71/2006
ISP: 73/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ332-340-
350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JE
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