914
FXUS61 KOKX 091731
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY MILD / WARMER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. NOTICEABLY COOLER MUCH OF THE TIME FOR COASTAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS / FOG DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT TIME HOURS TO THE EAST FOR COASTAL
SECTIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
2) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO AND
ENDING AS SOME WET SNOW THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY COOLER
AIR TO END NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
MARCH UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, REACHING +8 C LATER TODAY,
+10 C TUESDAY, AND APPROACH +12 C ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH
MOST WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES,
EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPERATURES TO FALL WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WIND OFF THE COOLER WATERS FOR COASTAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH OF
THE NYC TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WIND
WILL MEAN MORE PLACES FURTHER EAST WILL STAY WARMER FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS OFF THE COLDER WATERS, LOOK FOR LOW CLOUD
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MID WEEK. ENOUGH RIDGING
OUT AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR
AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THUS LOWERED POPS DOWN FROM
THE NBM. THE CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD PIVOT THROUGH FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING, SO AFTER A
MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE WINDS SWITCH QUICKLY TO THE NW ON
THURSDAY WITH A CP AIR MASS MOVING IN. RAIN IS LIKELY TO SWITCH
OVER TO WET SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO BEHAVE LIKE A ANAFRONT. LIQUID
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH GUSTY / BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FALL THROUGH THE
40S AND LIKELY INTO THE 30S BEFORE DAY'S END. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
MOST PLACES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18 KT. A SOUTHERLY SEA
BREEZE STARTS AT JFK EXPANDS FARTHER INLAND INTO LATE DAY.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR IN FOG TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS IN THE
MARINE LAYER. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS NOW FARTHER EAST FOR KJFK, KISP,
KBDR AND KGON. FOG AT OTHER NYC TERMINALS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE.
FOG LIKELY AT KJFK TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 03Z. THE FOG COULD
SPREAD TO THE OTHER METROS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. S WINDS G20KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON E OF THE NYC METROS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS LIKELY ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MVFR
OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE AT TIMES. S WINDS 10-15G20-25KT. LLWS LIKELY.
THURSDAY: RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE. SW WINDS
10-15G20KT EARLY, BECOMING W-NW 15-20G25KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT KGON WITH MVFR
COND STILL POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE VFR. W-NW WINDS 15-20G25KT IN THE
EVENING.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. S WINDS 10-15G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
COND. S WINDS 10-15G20-25KT, BECOMING SW-W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY AS SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE OCEAN WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE
WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING ON A S TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MARCH 9TH AND
TUESDAY MARCH 10TH.
MONDAY MARCH 9TH:
EWR: 82/2016
BDR: 64/2021
NYC: 77/2016
LGA: 75/2016,2000
JFK: 67/1973
ISP: 68/2016
TUESDAY MARCH 10TH:
EWR: 81/2016
BDR: 70/2006
NYC: 79/2016
LGA: 78/2016
JFK: 71/2006
ISP: 73/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BC/JE
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE
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