439
FXUS61 KOKX 100110
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
910 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY MILD/WARMER AIR EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHT TIME ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS.
2) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO AND ENDING AS SOME WET SNOW THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY
COOLER AIR TO END NEXT WEEK.
3) ADDITIONAL LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY FROM A PASSING ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS
IS A SOLID 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AS 850 TEMPERATURES REACH +10 C ON TUESDAY, AND APPROACH
+12 C ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NBM THIS AFTERNOON BEING CLOSE
TO 11 DEGREES TOO LOW FOR TEMPERATURES. NAM-MET GUIDANCE HAS ALSO
BEEN TOO LOW, HOWEVER THE GFS-MAVS HAVE BEEN THE BEST OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAV TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT 2 DAYS, BASED ON TODAYS PERFORMANCE.
LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE FOG GETS AND HOW MUCH VISIBILITIES DROP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
JUST PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST, AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MID WEEK. ENOUGH
RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
OUR AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PIVOT THROUGH FIRST THING
THURSDAY MORNING, SO AFTER A MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE WINDS
SWITCH QUICKLY TO THE NW ON THURSDAY WITH A CP AIR MASS MOVING
IN. RAIN IS LIKELY TO SWITCH OVER TO WET SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO BEHAVE
LIKE A ANAFRONT. LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE
AROUND A QUARTER OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTY / BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S AND LIKELY INTO THE 30S BEFORE DAY'S END. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT MOST PLACES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW SWINGS OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY SYSTEM.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ASIDE FROM LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND BREEZY WINDS. A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE COAST AND A SNOW
OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE INTERIOR.
SOME GUIDANCE STILL VARIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS. ITS POSSIBLE THE PRECIP MAY BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY, BUT THIS FORECAST
REMAINS IN FLUX.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ATLC THRU TUE.
VFR TO START THIS EVE, THEN FOG LIKELY DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COASTS, PRODUCING IFR AT TIMES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
KJFK, KISP, KBDR AND KGON. THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLY TUE, WITH
VFR AGAIN ALL TERMINALS.
VRB FLOW TNGT, WITH SPEEDS DECREASING THIS EVE. SW/S FLOW
REDEVELOPS ON TUE WITH SEA BREEZE FLOW AT THE SHORE, THEN WINDS
LIGHTEN AGAIN TUE NGT BECOMING VRB BY 6Z WED.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
FOG LIKELY AT KJFK TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 03Z. THE FOG COULD
SPREAD TO THE OTHER METROS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. S WINDS G20KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON E OF THE NYC METROS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS LIKELY ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MVFR
OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE AT TIMES. S WINDS 10-15G20-25KT. LLWS LIKELY.
THURSDAY: RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE. SW WINDS
10-15G20KT EARLY, BECOMING W-NW 15-20G25KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT KGON WITH MVFR
COND STILL POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE VFR. W-NW WINDS 15-20G25KT IN THE
EVENING.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. S WINDS 10-15G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
COND. S WINDS 10-15G20-25KT, BECOMING SW-W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
10.3-3.9 STLT IMAGERY SUPPORTS FOG EXPANDING NWD OVER THE OCEAN.
AN ADVY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ON THE OCEAN. FOG,
LESS WIDESPREAD, EXPECTED ELSWEHERE ATTM.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY AS SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE OCEAN WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE
WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING ON A S TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MARCH 9TH AND
TUESDAY MARCH 10TH.
MONDAY MARCH 9TH:
EWR: 82/2016
BDR: 64/2021/2026
NYC: 77/2016
LGA: 75/2016,2000
JFK: 67/1973/2026
ISP: 68/2016/2026
TUESDAY MARCH 10TH:
EWR: 81/2016
BDR: 70/2006
NYC: 79/2016
LGA: 78/2016
JFK: 71/2006
ISP: 73/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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