119
FXUS61 KOKX 101506
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1106 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND, THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND
GREAT SOUTH BAY AS THE DENSE FOG REMAINS IN PLACE IN THESE
LOCATIONS.
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC
METRO AREA AS HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HIGHS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S, WITH AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE READING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY MILD / WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS / FOG DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS TO THE EAST FOR COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY EVENING.
2) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, LIKELY CHANGING TO AND ENDING
AS SOME WET SNOW LATER THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR AT THE END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO +10 C TODAY, AND APPROACHING +12 C ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, WITH MOST WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES, EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WIND OFF THE COOLER WATERS FOR COASTAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MORE
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WIND WILL MEAN MORE PLACES FURTHER
EAST WILL STAY WARMER FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
FOR TODAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS OFF THE COLDER WATERS, LOOK FOR LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND CLOSER TO THE COAST ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS WARM, BUT STILL AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OFF THE
COLDER WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. ALSO THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MID WEEK. ENOUGH RIDGING OUT
AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS FAR NW SECTIONS SEEING THE
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS, THUS LOWERED POPS DOWN SOME FROM THE NBM DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
/ NIGHT WITH A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD PIVOT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, SO AFTER A MILD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS SWITCH QUICKLY TO THE NW ON THURSDAY WITH A CP AIR
MASS MOVING IN. RAIN IS LIKELY TO SWITCH OVER TO WET SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO BEHAVE LIKE A
ANAFRONT. BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN ALOFT SO ANY
WET SNOWFLAKES WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY STICKING. LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO RANGE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NW SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTY / BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S AND LIKELY INTO THE 30S BEFORE DAY'S END. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT MOST PLACES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
SETTLE RIGHT NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR AS STRATUS AND FOG HAVE NOW DISSIPATED AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER, LIFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN TO KISP/KGON AS EARLY AS
THIS EVENING, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE OTHER TAF
SITES REMAINING VFR.
LIGHT/VRB FLOW SHOULD BECOME SW-S 5-10 KT LATE THIS MORNING,
WITH A MORE S SEA BREEZE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AT THE SHORE. SE
HARBOR BREEZE LESS THAN TO 10 KT SHOULD REACH KEWR/KTEB BY 22Z.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT S TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. S WINDS G15-20KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
MAINLY FOR THE NYC METROS AND KISP. LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON E OF THE NYC METROS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS LIKELY ESPECIALLY NW OF THE NYC METROS,
WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE AT TIMES. S WINDS 10-15G20KT,
BECOMING SW LATE. LLWS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER COND
POSSIBLE. W WINDS 10-15G20KT, BECOMING NW 15-20G25KT BY LATE
MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT EARLY IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. S WINDS 15G25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR OR LOWER COND. WINDS BECOMING SW-W 10-15G20-25KT. LLWS
POSSIBLE LATE AT KGON/KISP.
SATURDAY: VFR. W WINDS 10-15G20KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
DENSE FOG FOR THE EASTERN WATERS IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THE WATERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BY THURSDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW. SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON A S FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD LINGER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY MARCH 10TH.
EWR: 81/2016
BDR: 70/2006
NYC: 79/2016
LGA: 78/2016
JFK: 71/2006
ISP: 73/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...GOODMAN/MET
MARINE...JE
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