864
FXUS61 KOKX 101948
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COME IN WARMER THAN FORECAST. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 80
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER, MAINLY IN THE NYC AN NE NJ METRO AREA.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
CT, BUT EVEN HERE, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE WATERS, TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND AND IMMEDIATE COAST WILL 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY MILD / WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS TO THE EAST
FOR COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FOR A PORTION
OF WEDNESDAY EVENING.
2) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, LIKELY CHANGING TO
AND ENDING AS SOME WET SNOW LATER THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR AT THE END THE WEEK.
3) AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY WINDS
LASTING INTO SATURDAY.
4) A POTENT COLORADO LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALSO WITH STRONG WINDS. MOST OF THE
EVENT WILL BE PLAIN RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT THE ONSET
AND UPON THE SYSTEM'S EXIT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S, WHICH IS NOT TOO EXCESSIVELY
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
(DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S). COLDEST LOWS SHOULD BE
ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH +12 C ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS WARM AS TUESDAY, THIS WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO MORE OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OFF THE COLDER WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. ALSO THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY.
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS OFF THE COLDER
WATERS, LOOK FOR LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND CLOSER
TO THE COAST ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE, AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SAME RELATIVE AREAS
AS LAST NIGHT...SOUTHERN AND TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MID WEEK. ENOUGH RIDGING OUT
AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. THE CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, SO AFTER A
MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S, THE WINDS SWITCH QUICKLY TO THE NW ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS MOVING IN. RAIN IS LIKELY TO
SWITCH OVER TO WET SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO BEHAVE LIKE AN ANAFRONT.
BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN ALOFT SO ANY WET
SNOWFLAKES WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY ACCUMULATING.
INDICATIONS THAT ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE MAY BE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SOME CAMS POINT TO A SQUALL LINE THAT MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL NJ WELL AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, THE LINE LOOKS TO
MAKE TO OUR REGION AFTER ANY DAYTIME HEATING, AND AS IT
APPROACHES THE MUCH COLDER WATERS, THE LINE SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NJ WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE IN
PLACE (POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH, HIGH HELICITY
VALUES, 400-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE). SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM A TENTH
TO JUST OVER A HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NW SECTIONS, WHERE STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW SWINGS OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PASSING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED, RESIDING UNDER MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AROUND THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY. MUCH OF IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO SEE PLAIN RAIN, BUT SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR. THE INTERIOR ALSO HOLDS THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION.
MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY, THEN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH.
SATURDAY WILL DRY OUT UNDER MAINLY COOLER WESTERLY FLOW, BUT MAY
REMAIN BREEZY BEHIND AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT UNTIL THE
EVENING AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST.
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 50 AT THE
WARMEST, AND THE MID-30S AT THEIR COOLEST, WITH SOME FAR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OUT
AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THIS LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO QUEBEC.
THIS SYSTEM IS MORE POTENT THAN FRIDAY'S SYSTEM AND ARE EXPECTING
MORE QPF OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL
ADVECT IN MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC, LEADING TO INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW'S COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
MONDAY, BRINGING WITH IT THE RISK FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY GIVEN ITS MID-MARCH, BUT ITS TOO FAR OUT AT THIS TIME TO
SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY ON IF WE'RE EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS YET.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW, THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH, AND A
STRONG DEVELOPING LLJ AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, A STRONG PERIOD
OF WINDS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, LIKELY PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGHS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60 DEGREES, WITH THE
WARMER DAY LYING ON MONDAY JUST BEFORE THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING WEDNESDAY.
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR TO LIFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KISP AND KGON, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE, SO
ONLY HAVE TEMPO FOR THE LOWER CONDITIONS. STRATUS IS LINGERING
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND, AND MAY COME INTO KISP
SOON AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
S-SW WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE FLOW, POSSIBLY REACHING KEWR AND
KTEB LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS, TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF IFR FOG AND STRATUS BRIEFLY REACHING KJFK TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT THE
NYC TERMINALS AND WEST WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE DAY. S WINDS
G15-20KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE NYC METROS AND
KISP. LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON E OF THE NYC
METROS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS LIKELY ESPECIALLY NW OF THE NYC METROS,
WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE EVENING. S WINDS 10-15G20KT, BECOMING SW LATE. LLWS
EXPECTED.
THURSDAY: SHOWERS LIKELY, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. W
WINDS 10-15G20KT, BECOMING NW 15-20G25KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT EARLY IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. S WINDS 15G25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR OR LOWER COND. WINDS BECOMING SW-W 10-15G20-25KT. LLWS
POSSIBLE LATE AT KGON/KISP.
SATURDAY: VFR. W WINDS 10-15G20KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
DENSE FOG FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, THE BAYS, IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE,SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON, AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT
OF THE NW. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS. WAVES ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, AND WILL
SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE WATERS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON A S FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY
AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY MARCH 10TH.
EWR: 81/2016
BDR: 70/2006
NYC: 79/2016
LGA: 78/2016
JFK: 71/2006
ISP: 73/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP/BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/BR
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