165
FXUS61 KOKX 110837
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.
2) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE TODAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS, MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR AT THE END THE WEEK.
3) AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
4) A POTENT COLORADO LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS. MOST OF THE
EVENT WILL BE PLAIN RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT THE ONSET
AND UPON THE SYSTEM'S EXIT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
NOT GET BELOW 60 AT LAGUARDIA, INTO THE 50S MOST ELSEWHERE, AND
THE 40S ACROSS SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH +13C, AND AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
COULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB WELL INT0 THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
FARTHER EAST, A S FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACES, AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND AND ACROSS THE FORKS INTO SE CT.
SOME LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND, AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME DENSE CLOSE TO SOUTH FACING SHORELINES AND ACROSS THE
FORKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY NW OF NYC THIS MORNING
AND ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH ALSO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NW OF NYC. CAM'S DIFFER ON TIMING
OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP, WITH THE LATEST HRRR BRINGING ONE
LINE OF CONVECTION INTO AREAS FROM NYC NORTH/WEST LATE TODAY,
THEN ANOTHER LINE THIS EVENING. NAM-3KM AND THE HIRES-ARW DO NOT
HAVE THE FIRST FEATURE AT ALL AND DELAY ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND
LINE UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NJ WHERE
THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE (POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
MOVING THROUGH, 400-500 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE). SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK JUST SW OF NYC AND NE NJ.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, SO
AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S,
WINDS SWITCH QUICKLY TO THE NW AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS
MOVES IN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED IN THE
MORNING, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S AFTER FROPA, AND THEN
TO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S THU NIGHT. POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW SHOWERS JUST BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS. BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN ALOFT, SO
ANY WET SNOWFLAKES WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY ACCUMULATING.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH, WITH THE HIGHER AMTS FROM NYC NORTH/WEST WHERE STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW SWINGS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PASSING ACROSS UPSTATE NY
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SAT.
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AROUND THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF IT SHOULD BE PLAIN RAIN,
BUT SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR. THE
INTERIOR ALSO HOLDS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION.
MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY, THEN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH. SATURDAY WILL DRY OUT UNDER MAINLY COOLER WESTERLY FLOW,
BUT MAY REMAIN BREEZY BEHIND AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
UNTIL THE EVENING AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST.
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 50 AT THE
WARMEST, AND THE MID-30S AT THEIR COOLEST, WITH SOME FAR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OUT AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND INTO QUEBEC.
THIS SYSTEM IS MORE POTENT THAN FRIDAY'S SYSTEM AND ARE EXPECTING
MORE QPF OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL
ADVECT IN MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC, LEADING TO INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ON MONDAY, BRINGING WITH IT THE RISK FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW, THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH, AND A
STRONG DEVELOPING LLJ, A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, LIKELY PEAKING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50 ON SUNDAY,
AND FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MON.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, LEFT AS PROB30
FOR NYC TERMINALS, KHPN AS WELL AS KSWF IN A MORE NARROW
TIME FRAME FROM AROUND 22Z TO 02Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
WITH SHOWERS, POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. IFR TO LIFR FORECAST DURING THE MORNING FOR KISP AND KGON
WITH OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND DURING THE NIGHT WITH SW WINDS AROUND 45-55 KT
DEVELOPING AT 2KFT.
WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE DIRECTION,
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS. THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DEVELOP TO NEAR 20 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN CATEGORY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
WHICH COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE TONIGHT: RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR PROBABLE. WINDS BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
THURSDAY: RAIN SHOWERS, POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH SNOW LATER IN
DAY. MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT NIGHT WITH
VFR RETURNING. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE DAY,
FRIDAY: VFR DURING THE DAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY: RAIN AT TIMES WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SE WIND GUSTS
20-30 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS,
MARINE
DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN OCEAN/SOUND WATERS AND
THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
INCREASING SW FLOW TODAY SHOULD BRING SCA COND TO THE OCEAN AND
THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT
AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT.
SCA COND EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS DAYTIME THU AFTER A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH NW FLOW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND OCEAN SEAS REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE DAY.
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ABOVE 5 FT SHOULD CONTINUE ON ALL OCEAN
WATERS INTO THU EVENING, E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THROUGH ALL OF
THU NIGHT, AND E OF MORICHES INLET INTO FRI MORNING.
ANY LULL WILL BE BRIEF AS SCA COND SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND CONTINUE
INTO SAT MORNING, WITH S-SW FLOW 20-25 KT GUSTING UP TO 30 KT
AND OCEAN SEAS PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRI NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH
SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT, BUT HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SAT EVENING.
SCA COND ALSO POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT VIA
INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED MAR 11:
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
KEWR: 75/2021
KBDR: 67/1977
KNYC: 73/1977
KLGA: 70/1977
KJFK: 68/2016
KISP: 68/1977
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
KEWR: 48/2016
KBDR: 45/2016
KNYC: 50/1977
KLGA: 49/2016
KJFK: 50/2016
KISP: 45/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-
335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ332-338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...BG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG
CLIMATE...BG
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