430
FXUS61 KOKX 250534
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
2) RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, THEN MILDER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FAST, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL FEATURE BROAD-SCALE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS
TIME WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH.
FORECAST IS DRY FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU BUT CAN'T ENTIRELY
RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO THE NORTH. SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING MOST
OF THAT TIME, WITH SOME PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WED AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU, ESPECIALLY NW OF NYC WHERE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS ON THU SHOULD
REACH 55-60 ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT, THE 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE, AND NEAR 70 IN URBAN NE NJ, SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT AND STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW E OF NYC.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE FROM
ABOUT MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DRIES OUT THEREAFTER FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY IN THE 40S, BEFORE SLOWLY TRENDING MILDER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MON/TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60. THE COLDEST NIGHTS APPEAR TO BE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S,
COLDEST INLAND.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
S-SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH 12Z. VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. SW WINDS INCREASE AFTER 12Z
AND THEN SHIFT TO THE S-SSE IN THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN AFTER
02Z THURSDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO S-SE ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE OFF BY
1-3 HOURS.
WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 18 KT AT KJFK FROM 21Z
WEDNESDAY UNTIL AROUND 01Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20 KT ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE. LLWS POSSIBLE
LATE.
FRIDAY: MVFR WITH RAIN DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING, BECOMING VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN BY THU AFTERNOON IN S
FLOW AND A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT
ON THE NON- OCEAN WATERS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD LINGER ON THE OCEAN INTO DAYTIME
FRI, AND COULD CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT OUT EAST.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MW
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