298
FXUS61 KOKX 260858
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
458 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NY
HARBOR, LI BAYS, AND EASTERN LI SOUND FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF SHOWERS AND A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
2) MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY, TRENDING MILDER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH WARMER BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
WELL INTO THE 60S. THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF S CT AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN LI WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NYC METRO AWAY FROM THE COAST, NE NJ, AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THERE IS A CHANCE HIGHS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS THE
USUAL WARMER SPOTS OF NE NJ AND POTENTIALLY INTO NYC. THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC IS FALLING CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE, WITH
75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS HAVE SPED UP
IN RECENT MODEL CYCLES. THE 00Z CAMS ALSO SHOW A QUICKER TIMING
WITH SHOWERS ENTERING THE NW INTERIOR 00Z-03Z AND THEN
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND OR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY, WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
THIS IS DUE TO SOME JET ENERGY PASSING TO OUR NORTH, WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH A RANGE FROM
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY RESIDE NW OF
THE NYC METRO WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COLD ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SUBTLE SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE, MAINLY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, BUT LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN THAT COULD MIX WITH SOME WET SNOW FLAKES.
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY TO START THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR SATURDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO A BREEZY AND CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MARCH. WIND CHILLS EARLY
SATURDAY MAY GET AS COLD AS THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S, WITH
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY GETTING TO AROUND 40 TO 45 WHICH
IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MARCH 28. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST PLACES FALLING
BELOW FREEZING. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30
DEGREES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE COLD AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. A RETURN FLOW OUT
OF THE SW WILL HELP GET TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY THEN SET UP
NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THE POSITIONING
OF THE FRONT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE, BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR WARMER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY IF THE BOUNDARY
WERE TO SET UP TO OUR NORTH.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, BUT LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM ABOUT 05Z AT
KSWF, TO 09Z AT THE NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS. RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS COULD LINGER AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS TO AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
S WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING 10KT OR LESS, THEN INCREASING AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD EVENING UP TO 25-30KT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WIND WILL GET DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.
AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z FRIDAY
AND THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ERODES, THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
35 TO 40 KT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SW LLWS DEVELOPING TOWARD 00Z
FRIDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KT THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 30KT TOWARD EVENING.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION GRADUALLY ERODES 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY, A FEW
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING.
NW-N G20-25KT BY 12Z FRIDAY.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY. N
WINDS GUST AROUND 20KT, HIGHEST IN THE MORNING.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: VFR. SW GUSTS AROUND 20KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND TO
THE NY HARBOR, LI BAYS, AND EASTERN LI SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA TO INCLUDE THESE
WATERS. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER ON THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LI SOUND, SO HAVE HELD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA HERE. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, BUT OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN NEXT MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ332-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS
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