120
FXUS61 KOKX 261924
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
324 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
NO NOTABLE IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP TOWARDS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THE PASS THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT -
UNDER A HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD STILL
BE PRESENT RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WON'T INTRODUCE THUNDER
INTO THE FORECAST, BUT ANY RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND LIKELY NOT STRONG TO SEVERE.
AS FOR WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WHICH WOULD HELP PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE COULD
HOWEVER BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A COUPLE OF HOURS PRECEDING THE FRONT
WHEN WINDS COULD GUST CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER AND MIXING DEEPENS A LITTLE, AND THIS GOES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NO WIND ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS BEING
ONLY A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, BUT THERE COULD
AT LEAST BE SOME GUSTS 40-45 MPH DURING THIS PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
WHEN THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE IN A RIDGING TREND, SO
WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE VERTICAL FORCINGS WILL NOT
BE MUCH, SO NOT THINKING MUCH IF ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND ON AVERAGE.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND THEN
INCREASINGLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. VFR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AT MOST SITES, THE LOWERING TO
MVFR AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AS EARLY AS 01Z AT
KSWF, CLOSER TO 03Z-04Z AT THE NYC METROS, AND 04Z-05Z FARTHER EAST.
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM ABOUT 05Z AT KSWF, TO 07Z-08Z AT THE
NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER FROPA UNTIL ABOUT 12Z-13Z.
SW WINDS 10-15G20KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT KJFK AND SHOULD PUSH
INLAND TO KLGA BY 21Z, ALSO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WIND WILL
GET DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND A LOW LEVEL INVERSION ERODES, THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS 35-40
KT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SW LLWS ALSO DEVELOPS THIS EVENING
WITH FL020 WINDS UP TO 50-55 KT AND CONTINUES UNTIL COLD FROPA.
N-NW FLOW 15G20-25KT EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A FEW GUSTS 35-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SW FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM ABOUT 04Z-08Z TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: MAINLY VFR. N-NW WINDS G20KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY; VFR. SW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR COND MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THERE COULD
BE ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AHEAD OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT, BUT NOT WORTHY OF A WARNING. FOR THE OCEAN, THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS, WITH THE
ADVISORY POTENTIALLY NEEDING AN EXTENSION OF A FEW HOURS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, BUT NORTHERLY GUSTS ON
THE OCEAN MAY BE UPWARDS OF 25KT IN THE MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SCA POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE
TIME ON THE OCEAN. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, THE NON-OCEAN ZONES WILL
BE MAINLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ331-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ332-338-340-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JC/JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/JM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page