085
FXUS61 KOKX 262337
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
737 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
NO NOTABLE IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP TOWARDS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THE PASS THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT -
UNDER A HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD STILL
BE PRESENT RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WON'T INTRODUCE THUNDER
INTO THE FORECAST, BUT ANY RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND LIKELY NOT STRONG TO SEVERE.
AS FOR WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WHICH WOULD HELP PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE COULD
HOWEVER BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A COUPLE OF HOURS PRECEDING THE FRONT
WHEN WINDS COULD GUST CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER AND MIXING DEEPENS A LITTLE, AND THIS GOES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NO WIND ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS BEING
ONLY A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, BUT THERE COULD
AT LEAST BE SOME GUSTS 40-45 MPH DURING THIS PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
WHEN THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE IN A RIDGING TREND, SO
WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE VERTICAL FORCING WILL NOT
BE MUCH, SO NOT THINKING MUCH IF ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND ON AVERAGE.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND THEN
INCREASINGLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT PIVOTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT MOST SITES, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, AS EARLY AS 01Z AT KSWF, CLOSER TO 03Z-04Z AT THE NYC
METROS, AND TOWARDS 04Z-05Z FURTHER EAST. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE
OF THUNDER FOR KSWF, KTEB, AND KEWR. FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS,
BUT AN AMENDMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING FOR TSRA CHANCE.
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM ABOUT 04-06Z AT KSWF, TO 07Z-09Z AT
THE NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA UNTIL ABOUT 12Z-13Z, PERHAPS AS LATE AS 14Z
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOST COASTAL TERMINALS LIKE KJFK, KISP, AND KGON.
S TO SW WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25
KT, UP TO 30 KT FOR KJFK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL GET DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. AS WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ERODES, THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS 35-40 KT. AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE OF THIS REMAINS LOW. SW LLWS ALSO PREVAILS LATE THIS
EVENING WITH FL020 WINDS UP TO 45-55 KT AND CONTINUES UNTIL COLD
FROPA OCCURS OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE BRIEF LLWS AT KSWF UP TO 40
KT.
N-NW FLOW DEVELOPS BY THE FRIDAY MORNING PUSH, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING, MAINLY TOWARDS AND AFTER 13Z.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO END IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS 18Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AN AMENDMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THUNDER LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW
GUSTS 35-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SW FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
ABOUT 04Z-08Z TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. N WINDS 5-10KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH CALM WINDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
TUESDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE. FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THERE COULD
BE ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AHEAD OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT, BUT NOT WORTHY OF A WARNING. FOR THE OCEAN, THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS, WITH THE
ADVISORY POTENTIALLY NEEDING AN EXTENSION OF A FEW HOURS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, BUT NORTHERLY GUSTS ON
THE OCEAN MAY BE UPWARDS OF 25KT IN THE MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SCA POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE
TIME ON THE OCEAN. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, THE NON-OCEAN ZONES WILL
BE MAINLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JC/JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/JM
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