405
FXUS61 KOKX 270636
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
236 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, BECOMING DRY AND SEASONABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
2) UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND TREND MILDER
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
3) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SET UP NEAR THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK, WITH THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z. ANY
LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 12Z NEAR LONG ISLAND WILL DIMINISH
AND CONTINUE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TODAY, REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND, BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST CLOSER TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COLD ADVECTION INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY AND CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND. WIND
CHILLS EARLY SATURDAY MAY GET AS COLD AS THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S, WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST, ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MARCH 28. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST
PLACES FALLING BELOW FREEZING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S FOR MOST AND LOWER 30S IN THE NYC METRO. THE COLD AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE PARTS OF THE NYC METRO, NE NJ, AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY COULD REACH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN COOLER DUE TO THE EXPECTED ONSHORE FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SET UP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS THE BOUNDARY TO
OUR NORTH WHILE OTHERS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
DURING THIS PERIOD AND IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS LOOK TO BE LIMITED
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY.
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLY IN RAIN THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR. THE BRUNT
OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 09-10Z, WITH A
FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AFTER THAT.
N-NW FLOW DEVELOPS BY THE MORNING PUSH, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT
FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING, MAINLY TOWARDS AND AFTER 13Z. GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO END IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
NW GUSTS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON THAN 18Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. N WINDS 5-10KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH CALM WINDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND
POSSIBLE. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LI
SOUND AS WINDS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SCA LEVELS. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ON THE OCEAN, LI BAYS, AND EASTERN LI SOUND THROUGH
DAY BREAK. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT 5 FT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKEST WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WITH SEAS
FURTHER EAST TAKING UNTIL THIS EVENING TO FALL BELOW 5 FT.
MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ON SATURDAY WITH A
MODESTLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN, SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS
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