336
FXUS61 KOKX 271738
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING OFFSHORE, BECOMING DRY AND
SEASONABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
2) UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND TREND MILDER
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
3) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SET UP NEAR THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TODAY, REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND, BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST CLOSER TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COLD ADVECTION INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY AND CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND. WIND
CHILLS EARLY SATURDAY MAY GET AS COLD AS THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S, WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST, ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MARCH 28. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST
PLACES FALLING BELOW FREEZING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S FOR MOST AND LOWER 30S IN THE NYC METRO. THE COLD AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE PARTS OF THE NYC METRO, NE NJ, AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY COULD REACH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN COOLER DUE TO THE EXPECTED ONSHORE FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SET UP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS THE BOUNDARY TO
OUR NORTH WHILE OTHERS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
DURING THIS PERIOD AND IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS LOOK TO BE LIMITED
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT (05Z-12Z). AIRMASS IS VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE OF SEEING
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BE N AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS LIKELY LOST IN THE 19Z TO 21Z TIMEFRAME. N/NE
WINDS THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS COULD BECOME A BIT
MORE VARIABLE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY MAY
PEAK NEAR 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15KT, GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 5-10KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND
POSSIBLE. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON THE OCEAN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDING BELOW 25 KT EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT 5 FT SEAS REMAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKEST WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WITH SEAS
FURTHER EAST TAKING UNTIL THIS EVENING TO FALL BELOW 5 FT.
MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ON SATURDAY WITH A
MODESTLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN, SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS
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