377
FXUS61 KOKX 271946
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND TREND MILDER
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
2) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SET UP NEAR THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, PROVIDING FOR PERSISTENT NW FLOW. ASIDE
FROM A FEW LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY
PASSAGE.
THE COLDEST AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS AT NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE 20S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NYC REMAINING AROUND FREEZING. THE HIGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY PROVIDING FOR A S TO SW FLOW
BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. INCREASED
SW FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY RESULT IN A
FAIRLY QUICK WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE 60S
AND 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND COOLER
ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SET UP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
FRI DAY. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
WHILE OTHERS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS LOOK TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT (05Z-12Z). AIRMASS IS VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE OF SEEING
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LOW.
NORTHERLY WINDS, FROM NW TO NE, 10-15KT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS ENDING BY
21Z/22Z. WINDS THEN N/NE THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY MAY
PEAK NEAR 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15KT, GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 5-10KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND
POSSIBLE. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON THE OCEAN INTO THE EVENING WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW 5 FEET BY TONIGHT.
MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ON SATURDAY WITH A
MODESTLY STRONG N/NW FLOW, THOUGH SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL ENOUGH TO NOT
WARRANT ISSUING AN ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN, SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353.
DISCUSSION...JM/MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/MW
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