225
FXUS61 KOKX 280310
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1110 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND TREND MILDER
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, PROVIDING FOR PERSISTENT NW
FLOW. SOME POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR EASTERN COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH THE MID-LEVEL
ENERGY PASSAGE AND SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH. COULD HAVE A QUICK
COATING OF SNOW IN SOME SPOTS WITH THE TIMING AND AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION BOTH LARGER AND SMALLER SCALE.
THE COLDEST AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS AT NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE 20S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NYC REMAINING AROUND FREEZING. THE HIGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY PROVIDING FOR A S TO SW FLOW
BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. INCREASED
SW FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY RESULT IN A
FAIRLY QUICK WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE 60S
AND 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND COOLER
ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
EARLY IN THE WEEK A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, RAIN WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY
OCCURS. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
MID TO LATE WEEK, A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MAY STALL NEARBY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT.
AIRMASS TRENDS WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY INTO MIDWEEK AND THEN
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS IN FOR LATE WEEK.
PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN, ALTHOUGH SOME MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS IN
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT MAY HAVE A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR. THERE VERY WELL MAY BE SOME FLURRIES OR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW PRIMARILY AT EASTERN MOST TERMINALS LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (07Z-13Z). THE AIRMASS IS VERY
DRY AND CONFIDENCE OF SEEING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LOW, BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR BRIEFLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OUT
TOWARDS KBDR, KISP, AND KGON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR AWHILE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH. OTHERWISE, MAINLY N WINDS AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. THE WINDS INCREASE TOWARDS 09-10Z AND WILL
INCREASE FURTHER LATER IN THE MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE N, THEN NW
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAINLY AROUND 25 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A LOW POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF SUB VFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR KLGA AND
KJFK TOWARDS AND JUST AFTER 06Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GUSTY NW WINDS
SATURDAY COULD PEAK TO 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 5-10KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND
POSSIBLE. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
NON ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
LOWER.
MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ON SATURDAY WITH A
MODESTLY STRONG N/NW FLOW, THOUGH SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL ENOUGH TO NOT
WARRANT ISSUING AN ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR NEXT WEEK, SCA POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE TIME ON THE OCEAN. ASIDE
FROM AROUND MIDWEEK, THE NON-OCEAN ZONES WILL BE MAINLY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM/MW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/MW
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