602
FXUS61 KOKX 280537
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND TREND MILDER
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, PROVIDING FOR PERSISTENT NW
FLOW. SOME POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR EASTERN COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH THE MID-LEVEL
ENERGY PASSAGE AND SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH. COULD HAVE A QUICK
COATING OF SNOW IN SOME SPOTS WITH THE TIMING AND AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION BOTH LARGER AND SMALLER SCALE.
THE COLDEST AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS AT NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE 20S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NYC REMAINING AROUND FREEZING. THE HIGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY PROVIDING FOR A S TO SW FLOW
BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. INCREASED
SW FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY RESULT IN A
FAIRLY QUICK WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE 60S
AND 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND COOLER
ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
EARLY IN THE WEEK A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, RAIN WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY
OCCURS. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
MID TO LATE WEEK, A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MAY STALL NEARBY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT.
AIRMASS TRENDS WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY INTO MIDWEEK AND THEN
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS IN FOR LATE WEEK.
PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN, ALTHOUGH SOME MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS IN
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT MAY HAVE A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AT KISP AND KGON EARLY THIS
MORNING (10-14Z), BUT NO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
N-NW WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING
AROUND 10 KT 10-12Z. WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL NW THEREAFTER AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BECOMING AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30
KT ARE POSSIBLE AT NYC TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND DIRECTION MAY BACK TO THE WNW BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND
GUSTS QUICKLY DROP OFF. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
START AND END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD AVERAGE JUST NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY, THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
NON ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
LOWER.
MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ON SATURDAY WITH A
MODESTLY STRONG N/NW FLOW, THOUGH SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL ENOUGH TO NOT
WARRANT ISSUING AN ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR NEXT WEEK, SCA POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE TIME ON THE OCEAN. ASIDE
FROM AROUND MIDWEEK, THE NON-OCEAN ZONES WILL BE MAINLY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM/MW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MW
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