389
FXUS61 KOKX 291913
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
313 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHERN CT.
2) WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER COMING UP TOWARDS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE AND LAND MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS,
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CT FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FIRE SPREAD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF RH
VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCING 20 TO 25
MPH GUSTS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EARLY TO MIDWEEK, MIN RH VALUES WILL BE
CLOSER TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ANTICIPATING INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, HIGHS WILL BE
TEMPERED IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST, BEING AFFECTED BY AN ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT. MIXING UP TO 900-850MB AWAY FROM THE MARINE
INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED. 900MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH 13-15C ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH 850MB TEMPS AT 11-13C. THIS COULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S IN THE TYPICALLY WARMEST SPOTS IN THE NE NJ URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT AREAS. THERE IS HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THAT MAY ENTER THE AREA BY THE
TIME PEAK HEATING WOULD OCCUR. CURRENT FORECAST IS DETERMINISTIC NBM
WITHOUT ANY ADJUSTMENTS, AND WHILE THIS FALLS BELOW THE 25TH
PERCENTILE, IT'S CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT THINKING. HIGHS NEAR 80 FOR
THE TYPICAL WARMEST SPOTS WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME RECORD
HIGHS FOR THE DATE WOULD BE APPROACHED. RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE APPROACHED. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. JET RELATIVELY CLOSER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY NEXT SUNDAY. THESE
TIME PERIODS ARE ESSENTIALLY WHERE THE 250MB WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER
ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO OTHER TIME PERIODS. THIS TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT THE AVERAGE DEPICTION AMONGST DIFFERENT LARGE SCALE
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AND COULD VERY WELL
STALL OUT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW THE
FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ON SUNDAY.
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE PRESENT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. AT TIMES, RAIN IS MORE LIKELY SUCH AS
WITH THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE LOW
LEVELS DUE TO THE WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND VERTICAL FORCING WITH
THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ANOTHER HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS IS WHEN THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY MOVE BACK NORTH WITHIN THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT.
AFTER A MUCH COOLER DAY THURSDAY WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 50S, FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FRIDAY. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE NOT TOO MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS DAY AND ARE FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR NEXT SUNDAY.
FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES TRENDED WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SO, RAIN IS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FORECAST MID TO LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SSW WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
EXPECTED. GUSTS SHOULD END 23-02Z, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY
FALLING TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. SOME OUTLYING TERMINALS
MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY AFTER 14Z. A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT
ARE POSSIBLE.
-SHRA BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. HANDLED THIS WITH A PROB30
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS OR VISIBILITIES WITH ANY SHRA.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
START AND END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS TO BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST,
PARTICULARLY AT JFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON: MAINLY VFR. SW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. -SHRA POSSIBLE LATER
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT ON TUESDAY, STRONGEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY, THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LATE DAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, MAINLY NW OF
NYC METRO TERMINALS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR AND SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS AROUND 25KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING NEAR THE NY HARBOR
ENTRANCE THROUGH FAR WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY DUE TO THE AMBROSE JET.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE SCA ON THE OCEAN ONLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO ASSESS WHETHER OR NOT LATE DAY TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY WOULD REQUIRE A GALE WATCH. SCA CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD ON ALL WATERS, BUT EXTENDING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY THE OCEAN. ONSHORE WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN PROMOTE SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WITH
ELEVATED SEAS AND WIND GUSTS PERIODICALLY ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 82/1978
KBDR: 71/1955
KNYC: 83/1917
KLGA: 80/1978
KJFK: 75/1978
KISP: 67/1999
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 31:
KEWR: 63/1998
KBDR: 50/1998
KNYC: 66/1998
KLGA: 59/1998
KJFK: 51/1981
KISP: 52/1998
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 62/2016
KBDR: 53/2016
KNYC: 61/2016
KLGA: 56/2016
KJFK: 52/2016
KISP: 54/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/JM
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