108
FXUS61 KOKX 300006
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
806 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER COMING UP TOWARDS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ANTICIPATING INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, HIGHS WILL BE
TEMPERED IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST, BEING AFFECTED BY AN
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. MIXING UP TO 900-850MB AWAY FROM THE
MARINE INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED. 900MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH
13-15C ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 850MB TEMPS AT 11-13C. THIS COULD
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE TYPICALLY WARMEST SPOTS IN
THE NE NJ URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT AREAS. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THAT
MAY ENTER THE AREA BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING WOULD OCCUR.
CURRENT FORECAST IS DETERMINISTIC NBM WITHOUT ANY ADJUSTMENTS,
AND WHILE THIS FALLS BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE, IT'S CONSISTENT
WITH CURRENT THINKING. HIGHS NEAR 80 FOR THE TYPICAL WARMEST
SPOTS WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE
WOULD BE APPROACHED. RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO
BE APPROACHED. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. JET RELATIVELY CLOSER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY
NEXT SUNDAY. THESE TIME PERIODS ARE ESSENTIALLY WHERE THE 250MB
WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATER ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO OTHER
TIME PERIODS. THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE AVERAGE DEPICTION
AMONGST DIFFERENT LARGE SCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
MODELS.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AND COULD VERY WELL
STALL OUT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW THE
FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ON SUNDAY.
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE PRESENT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. AT TIMES, RAIN IS MORE LIKELY SUCH AS
WITH THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS BECAUSE OF THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO THE WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
VERTICAL FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ANOTHER HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS IS
WHEN THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE BACK NORTH WITHIN THE REGION
AS A WARM FRONT.
AFTER A MUCH COOLER DAY THURSDAY WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 50S, FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FRIDAY. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE NOT TOO MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS DAY AND ARE FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR NEXT SUNDAY.
FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES TRENDED WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SO, RAIN IS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FORECAST MID TO LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SSW WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 OR LESS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
ENDING 00-02Z. GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN FORECAST.
GUSTS MAY ONLY END BRIEFLY AT KISP THEN START UP AGAIN A FEW
HOURS LATER. SOME OUTLYING TERMINALS MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT
LIKELY AFTER 14Z. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
-SHRA BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HANDLED THIS WITH A PROB30 ALONG WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS OR
VISIBILITIES WITH ANY SHRA.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
START AND END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS TO BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST,
PARTICULARLY AT KJFK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GUSTS MAY BECOME
OCCASIONAL AT KJFK OVERNIGHT AND NOT COMPLETELY END.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TUESDAY. VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT ON TUESDAY, STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY, THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LATE DAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, MAINLY NW OF
NYC METRO TERMINALS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
WERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS. RAP AND HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THE NEAR 25 KT GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GUSTS HAVE BEEN A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST AS WELL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ISSUED SCA FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS.
SCA REMAINS ON THE OCEAN ONLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO ASSESS WHETHER OR NOT LATE DAY TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY WOULD REQUIRE A GALE WATCH. SCA
CONDS ARE OTHERWISE LIKELY TUESDAY ON THE OCEAN AND DURING LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY ON ALL WATERS, BUT
EXTENDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY THE OCEAN.
ONSHORE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN PROMOTE SCA CONDS ON THE
OCEAN WITH ELEVATED SEAS AND WIND GUSTS PERIODICALLY ABOVE
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 82/1978
KBDR: 71/1955
KNYC: 83/1917
KLGA: 80/1978
KJFK: 75/1978
KISP: 67/1999
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 31:
KEWR: 63/1998
KBDR: 50/1998
KNYC: 66/1998
KLGA: 59/1998
KJFK: 51/1981
KISP: 52/1998
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 62/2016
KBDR: 53/2016
KNYC: 61/2016
KLGA: 56/2016
KJFK: 52/2016
KISP: 54/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/JM
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