264
FXUS61 KOKX 301946
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.
3)A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WARM DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY SW WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SET UP TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLIES WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, AND THEN THE 50S AND 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GET WELL INTO THE
70S FOR NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. URBAN PORTIONS OF NE NJ
MAY EVEN HIT 80. HOWEVER, CLOSER TO THE COAST, HIGHS WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE 50S AND 60S. AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40, SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH SHORE OF LI AND THE TWIN FORKS THE COOLEST.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RECORDS TO FALL WILL BE FOR HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR POTENTIAL RECORD HIGH AND RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION. WHILE THE NBM IS
CARRYING LIKELY POPS, THIS MAY BE TOO HIGH. FORCING IN THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS DISORGANIZED. THUS,COVERAGE MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH ARE EXPECTED.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH DISTURBANCES
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
FOR DAYTIME SW WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BLENDED IN NBM 90 WITH
THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING FASTER WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON
THIS TREND, WENT COOLER THAN THE 13Z NBM. USED MODEL CONSENSUS
FROM 12Z. THIS KEEP HIGHS SUFFICIENTLY BELOW RECORDS. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS ANY SPEED UP OR SLOWDOWN OF THE FRONT
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BOTH DUE TO
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEN POST-
FRONTAL WITH OVERRUNNING AS LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR DRAINS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY, FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, AND THEN SOUTH
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT AS ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS TO THE WEST
AND NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND HOW FAR NORTH AND
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE. AS A RESULT THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES, AND WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MUCH OF THE TIME, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER. OVERALL,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY BEING AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AT TIMES.
THE DEEPER LOW PASSING WEST AND NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL
BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. A
FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY, WITH DRIER AIR
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
SSW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT THE
NYC/COASTAL TERMINAL WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT KJFK
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTS SHOULD END AROUND 00Z
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT.
WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SW TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT.
MAINLY VFR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING,
BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR AT KSWF.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS COULD LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
AT KJFK.
ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS. SW-SSW WIND GUSTS
15-25 KT, STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCE OF MVFR OR
LOWER AND CHANCE OF LLWS AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER AND LLWS EARLY. MVFR OR
LOWER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. E WIND
GUSTS 20 KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS ARE MAINLY FOR NEARSHORE
GUSTS. THIS WILL BE DROPPED EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, A PROLONGED SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 5
TO 10 FEET INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN SUBSIDING LATE IN THE DAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWITCH WINDS AROUND FROM THE SW TO E.
HOWEVER, SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO STRENGTHENING E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS, GUSTS AND SEAS, CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ON THE OCEAN WATERS, FALLING BELOW BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 31:
KEWR: 63/1998
KBDR: 50/1998
KNYC: 66/1998
KLGA: 59/1998
KJFK: 51/1981
KISP: 52/1998
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 62/2016
KBDR: 53/2016
KNYC: 61/2016
KLGA: 56/2016
KJFK: 52/2016
KISP: 54/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...MET/DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/DW
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