665
FXUS61 KOKX 311140
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT IMPACTS
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED.
2)SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT
WILL SAG SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, PASSING THROUGH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT IS TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ARE BEING
HELPED BY SHORTWAVE LIFT INTERACTING WITH THIS INSTABILITY.
ANTICIPATING T-STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AS THESE SHOWERS ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM NEVERTHELESS THIS MORNING. AFTER
THIS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS THROUGH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND MORE INSTABILITY. CAPE WILL BE MODEST AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE, BUT GIVEN WIND PROFILES, MAYBE CAN GET SOME
40+MPH GUSTS IN A THUNDERSTORM. WITH THAT SAID, OVERALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ARE BELOW 50% FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN THOSE OF
TODAY, SO JUST A ISOLATED RUMBLE POSSIBLE AND LIKELY NO STRONG GUSTS.
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING WOULD LEAD TO
ANY TYPE OF FLOODING FOR EITHER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS, BUT RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY EACH OF THE
DAYS, SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY EXTENDED PERIODS OF RAIN. BEST CHANCE
OF GOING RAIN-FREE IS ON FRIDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN BEING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT
MANAGE TO MATERIALIZE, AND INVERTED-V PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG WIND
GUST POTENTIAL IN/NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. NBM/WPC NOT SHOWING T-STORM
POTENTIAL SO FAR ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THINKING IS THAT GUIDANCE MAY
HINT MORE AT THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY AS SUNDAY DRAWS NEARER,
PARTICULARLY IF WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
WE CAN GET SOME CLEARING OF THE SKY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA GRADUALLY APPROACHES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAINLY VFR. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW EAST OF KISP AND KBDR
AND MAY IMPACT KGON THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY DURING
THE DAY TODAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR. A THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SW THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 KT. GUSTS LOWER TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10-15 KT. LLWS EXPECTED FOR KISP AND KGON WITH
50KT AT 2KFT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE HOW FAR
WEST THIS COULD GET. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT NYC TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA TIMING AND COVERAGE IS RELATIVELY LOW AT
THIS TIME. A STRAY SHOWER OUTSIDE OF THE TIME INDICATED IN THE
TAF CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. E WIND GUSTS 20
KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN TO INCLUDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. GUSTS TO 25KT ALSO ANTICIPATED ON THE OCEAN
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDS AFTERNOON. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS,
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT, BUT
NOT WARRANTING AN ADVISORY.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS, GUSTS AND SEAS, CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING ON THE OCEAN WATERS, FALLING BELOW BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO SOUTH BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 31:
KEWR: 63/1998
KBDR: 50/1998
KNYC: 66/1998
KLGA: 59/1998
KJFK: 51/1981
KISP: 52/1998
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 62/2016
KBDR: 53/2016
KNYC: 61/2016
KLGA: 56/2016
KJFK: 52/2016
KISP: 54/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC
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