129
FXUS61 KOKX 311436
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1036 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, WITH MOST CLIMATE SITES
GETTING TO WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF RECORD DAILY HIGHS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NY HARBOR AND THE LONG ISLAND
SOUTH SHORE BAYS MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT IMPACTS
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED.
2. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT
WILL SAG SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, PASSING THROUGH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND MORE INSTABILITY.
CAPE WILL BE MODEST AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE, BUT GIVEN WIND PROFILES, MAYBE CAN GET SOME 40+ MPH
GUSTS IN A THUNDERSTORM. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS NW OF
NYC WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL SVR RISK. THAT SAID, OVERALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE BELOW 50% FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN THOSE OF
TODAY, SO JUST AN ISOLATED RUMBLE POSSIBLE AND LIKELY NO STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING WOULD LEAD TO
ANY TYPE OF FLOODING FOR EITHER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS, BUT RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY EACH OF
THE DAYS, SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY EXTENDED PERIODS OF RAIN.
BEST CHANCE OF GOING RAIN-FREE IS ON FRIDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN BEING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MANAGE TO MATERIALIZE, AND INVERTED-V
PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN/NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORM. NBM/WPC NOT SHOWING T-STORM POTENTIAL SO FAR ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER THINKING IS THAT GUIDANCE MAY HINT MORE AT
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY AS SUNDAY DRAWS NEARER, PARTICULARLY IF
WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WE CAN GET
SOME CLEARING OF THE SKY.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA GRADUALLY APPROACHES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAINLY VFR/DRY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR. A THUNDERSTORM
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SW THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 KT. GUSTS LOWER TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10-15 KT. LLWS EXPECTED FOR KISP/KGON WITH 50
KT AT 2 KFT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE HOW FAR WEST
THIS COULD GET. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AT NYC TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS RELATIVELY LOW.
A STRAY SHOWER OUTSIDE OF TIMES INDICATED IN THE TAF CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. E WINDS
G20KT.
FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA ISSUED FOR NY HARBOR AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS
WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET.
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED, AND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ANTICIPATED THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NON
OCEAN WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BUT NOT WARRANTING AN ADVISORY.
SCA COND FOR WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THU INTO THU
EVENING ON THE OCEAN WATERS, FALLING BELOW BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO S BY FRI MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 31:
KEWR: 85/1998
KBDR: 74/1998
KNYC: 86/1998
KLGA: 82/1998
KJFK: 74/1986
KISP: 73/1999
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 31:
KEWR: 63/1998
KBDR: 50/1998
KNYC: 66/1998
KLGA: 59/1998
KJFK: 51/1981
KISP: 52/1998
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 62/2016
KBDR: 53/2016
KNYC: 61/2016
KLGA: 56/2016
KJFK: 52/2016
KISP: 54/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JC/BG
AVIATION...JMC/JT
MARINE...JC/BG
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