068
FXUS61 KOKX 311923
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
323 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED.
2. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH INTO THIS EVENING,
THEN START TO SAG SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIPPLES ALONG IT. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA
DAYTIME WED, PASSING S OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC EITHER LATE WED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY WED EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO ORANGE COUNTY ATTM. MORE SHOWERS
EXPECTED TONIGHT NW OF NYC WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST AND FCST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A CAPPING H8 INVERSION, SO ANY TSTMS THAT DO MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND
MAY STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SVR RISK
CONTINUES FOR ORANGE, PUTNAM, W PASSAIC, ROCKLAND, AND
NW WESTCHESTER.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN THOSE OF TODAY, SO JUST SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES POSSIBLE AND
LIKELY NO STRONG WIND GUSTS.
RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2
INCH SO UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.
COMBO OF NBM 90TH PERCENTILE, HRRR, AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE DID
FAIRLY WELL CAPTURING THE WARMTH OF YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND GREATER CHANCES OF RAINFALL ON WED
DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM A BLEND OF 12Z HRRR AND NBM GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS, WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
ALONG MOST SOUTH FACING SHORELINES AS WELL AS THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND. TEMPS AT BDR AND ISP MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE AREA WED AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WED EVENING AND THEN STALL OFF THE NJ COAST, WITH A
COOLER MARITIME FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPS WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO MID
40S WEST, AND HIGH TEMPS ONLY 45-50. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE, ALSO FOG ESPECIALLY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH. TEMPS DAYTIME FRI
ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH; WITH A QUICKER WARM FROPA AND ENOUGH AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT
FCST OF 50S/60S FOR LONG ISLAND/S CT AND 70-75 WEST OF THE
HUDSON.
THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY. WITH A RATHER STRONG HIGH TO THE
NORTH, (1033 TO 1039 MB), THE FRONT MAY BE PUSHED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FARTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER, UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. AND IF THE FRONT IS FARTHER SOUTH, LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO THE NBM
10TH PERCENTILE. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING SUNDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE WARM SECTORED WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING TO THE WEST AND NORTH. SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE WILL
BE LOW WITH WEAK INSTABILITY, HOWEVER, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
50-60 KT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING SUNDAY PROVIDING
LIFT. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE AND LEFT OUT THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY POST
COLD FRONT, AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. DRIER AND
MORE SEASONAL WEATHER RETURNS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DROP THRU THE AREA ON
WED.
MAINLY VFR THRU THIS EVE. A FEW SHWRS POSSIBLE MAINLY NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THRU 21Z, THEN THE NEXT FOCUS FOR SHWRS IS
LATE TNGT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. PROB30S REMAIN FOR LAT TNGT
INTO WED MRNG, THEN VCSH WITH THE FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA
FOR THE LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. BEHIND THE FRONT, CHANCES FOR
LGT RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY.
A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
SW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KT INTO THIS EVE, THEN LESSENING
WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. WINDS BECOME N WED AFTN, VEERING TO
THE NE TOWARDS 00Z THU.
LLWS LIKELY TNGT AFT 00Z. IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY 9-10Z, BUT
TAFS GO A BIT FARTHER OUT ATTM.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED LIKELY INTO THIS
EVE, ESPECIALLY JFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
REST OF WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH N/NE WINDS.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH NW FLOW.
FRIDAY: BECOMING VFR WITH SW FLOW.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOWER SAT NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA'S REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NY HARBOR UNTIL 6 PM, AND HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED FOR THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS INTO MUCH OF
TONIGHT, WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED. SCA ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH DAYTIME WED AS SW FLOW 20-25
KT GUSTING UP TO 30 KT PUSHES SEAS UP TO 6-10 FT, HIGHEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN FOR A TIME WED NIGHT W OF
MORICHES INLET. THEN SCA COND LIKELY TO RETURN TO ALL OCEAN
WATERS FROM DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING THU IN E FLOW AFTER A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS
5-6 FT.
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI NIGHT, AND LINGER
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING, WITH A STRONG S-SW FLOW. CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATER SAT AS WINDS AND GUSTS
DIMINISH. THEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST, S WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS AND SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS, WITH
25 KT GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND BAYS, AND
POSSIBLY INTO NEW YORK HARBOR, THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS, AND
FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BE
NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES EARLY SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS
THE FORECAST WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITION LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 31:
KEWR: 85/1998
KBDR: 74/1998
KNYC: 86/1998
KLGA: 82/1998
KJFK: 74/1986
KISP: 73/1999
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 82/1978
KBDR: 71/1955
KNYC: 83/1917
KLGA: 80/1978
KJFK: 75/1978
KISP: 67/1999
APRIL 4:
KEWR: 82/1950
KBDR: 71/2025
KNYC: 80/1892
KLGA: 76/2010
KJFK: 73/2010
KISP: 75/2010
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 31:
KEWR: 63/1998
KBDR: 50/1998
KNYC: 66/1998
KLGA: 59/1998
KJFK: 51/1981
KISP: 52/1998
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 62/2016
KBDR: 53/2016
KNYC: 61/2016
KLGA: 56/2016
KJFK: 52/2016
KISP: 54/2016
APRIL 4:
KEWR: 61/1981
KBDR: 53/2025
KNYC: 62/1892
KLGA: 57/2025
KJFK: 57/2025
KISP: 54/2025
APRIL 5:
KEWR: 55/1981
KBDR: 49/1974
KNYC: 60/1892
KLGA: 53/2010
KJFK: 52/2010
KISP: 50/1981
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...BG/MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BG/MET
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