994
FXUS61 KOKX 011755
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACTS
SHOULD BE LIMITED.
2. SHOWERS LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH ANY IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED.
3. SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDES
FROM THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LIMITED CAPE WITH UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL PUT A LID ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY, BUT WILL STILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS LIFT
GETS ENHANCED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. A BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABLY WITH NOT ENOUGH
RAINFALL FOR ANY CONCERNS BEYOND SPOTTY MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. TIMING OF THIS THREAT WOULD BE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ANTICIPATING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE ONSET TIMING
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT. THIS ALSO HAS IMPLICATIONS ON WHETHER OR NOT A
THUNDERSTORM HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SHOULD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE BE CORRECT, MORE OF THE
AREA COULD HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE LIFT
SUPPLIED BY THE FRONT. WILL KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
NOW AS PER WPC GUIDANCE. SHOULD ANY CONVECTION OCCUR, IMPACTS
WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
STUCK WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND OF ETSS, STOFS, AND NYHOPS
50TH PERCENTILE WHICH INDICATES DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1.5 FT
GENERATED BY E FLOW THU INTO FRI MORNING. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAY'S FULL MOON
TO LEAD TO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES FROM THU AM INTO FRI AM. GIVEN THE E FLOW THE BIGGER
IMPACTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE THU NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU, THE TIDAL WATERS OF NE NJ, AND THE
SW CT COASTLINE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CATEGORY FORECAST STARTS WITH VFR THEN TRENDS TO MAINLY MVFR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
SOME SHOWERS REMAIN BUT WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT, AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE GOING INTO THURSDAY.
THEN, FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
TREND TOWARDS IFR. IFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THEREAFTER FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. IFR IS MAINLY FOR CEILINGS.
REGARDING THE WINDS, THEY ARE INITIALLY S-SW NEAR 10 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE NE-ENE BY LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP TO NEAR 15 KT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN STAY IN A GENERAL 10-15 KT
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
IF RADAR BLOSSOMS WITH DISCRETE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO
AMEND TO ADD IN BRIEF TSRA FOR 1-2 HOURS BEFORE 01Z THURSDAY.
THE TIMING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY: IFR. E/NE 10-15KT AT THE COAST. -DZ.
FRIDAY: BECOMING VFR. SW G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER SAT NIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SE-S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SW GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KT DURING DAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT NIGHT.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD ON THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT WHERE CRITERIA IS
NOT BEING MET, HOWEVER AS WINDS SHIFT EAST AND INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT, WAVES WILL PROBABLY BE BACK OVER 5 FT. HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED THE SCA HERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MIGHT NEED TO EVENTUALLY ISSUE A SCA FOR SOME
OF THESE OTHER ZONES SHOULD GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONGER
WINDS/GUSTS.
THE OCEAN SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS, OTHERWISE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY
BEFORE SEAS BUILD AGAIN AT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDS LOOK PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT GALES ON THE
OCEAN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 82/1978
KBDR: 71/1955
KNYC: 83/1917
KLGA: 80/1978
KJFK: 75/1978
KISP: 67/1999
APRIL 4:
KEWR: 82/1950
KBDR: 71/2025
KNYC: 80/1892
KLGA: 76/2010
KJFK: 73/2010
KISP: 75/2010
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 62/2016
KBDR: 53/2016
KNYC: 61/2016
KLGA: 56/2016
KJFK: 52/2016
KISP: 54/2016
APRIL 4:
KEWR: 61/1981
KBDR: 53/2025
KNYC: 62/1892
KLGA: 57/2025
KJFK: 57/2025
KISP: 54/2025
APRIL 5:
KEWR: 55/1981
KBDR: 49/1974
KNYC: 60/1892
KLGA: 53/2010
KJFK: 52/2010
KISP: 50/1981
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC
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