752
FXUS61 KOKX 020017
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
817 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS, AND
EXTENDED IN TIME ON THE OCEAN.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MINIMAL TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
2. MUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY.
3. SHOWERS LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH ANY IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SPRING TIDES ALONG WITH INCREASING ENE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALLOW TIDES TO RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE ACROSS
THE MOST VULNERABLE BACK BAY LOCATIONS. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE IMPACTED
IS THE THU NIGHT CYCLE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT SPREAD IN THE
MODELING AT THIS TIME, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON STATEMENTS FOR NOW IN
CASE THE SPREAD TIGHTENS BLW THRESHOLDS IN EVEN THESE MOST
VULNERABLE SPOTS LIKE FREEPORT. THE GUIDANCE FOR REYNOLDS CHANNEL
HAS A MEAN BLW MINOR CRITERIA ATTM.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE,
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TNGT. A FEW SHWRS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD
TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT. ANY TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK ATTM WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE. OTHERWISE, AN ENE FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE SHALLOW
FRONT, AND TEMPS ARE MODELED TO DROP INTO THE 40S WITH PERHAPS A
FEW UPR 30S TNGT. A SHRTWV SPARKED BY CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY PASSES THRU THU MRNG, PROVIDING CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE
CLOUDS, LLVL FLOW, AND AIRMASS CHANGE WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES 20-30 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN FOR THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY. WITH LIMITED SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS A LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT, AND SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF THUNDER, BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE POCKETS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT
AND THEN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/OR DRIZZLE ON THURSDAY. WHILE ALL
THE TAF LOCATIONS REFLECT CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR, THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THERE IS THE CHANCE THE FORECAST STAYS MAINLY MVFR, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT TERMINALS.
N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL VEER TO THE ENE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING
TO 12-15KT WITH G20-25KT. THE HIGHER END OF THOSE RANGES WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BACK DOWN LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR THE TIMING OF CEILING CATEGORY CHANGES AND
ONSET OF GUSTS OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE ON PROLONGED IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY HAS DECREASED, BUT FOR THE TIME WILL STAY THE COURSE
BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
MORE DOMINANT.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: IFR. E/NE 10 KT OR LESS. CHANCE OF
-DZ. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 04Z.
FRIDAY: BECOMING VFR. SW G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER SAT NIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SE-S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SW GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KT DURING DAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT NIGHT.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE MODELED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH
MOST OF THU NIGHT, SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THERE. ON THE
REMAINING WATERS, INCREASING ENE WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
EVE WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS. AN ADVY HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS. WINDS AND WAVES LIKELY BLW SCA LVLS FRI, THEN SCA
COND AGAIN POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
SATURDAY NIGHT SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS
AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BY SUNDAY SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS. GUSTS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS DURING SUNDAY, HOWEVER, HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS
WILL BE THAT HIGH AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE COOLER WATERS. POST COLD FRONT, WITH A WESTERLY FLOW,
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWLY IMPROVING WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NON OCEAN WATERS FALLING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE WATERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 82/1978
KBDR: 71/1955
KNYC: 83/1917
KLGA: 80/1978
KJFK: 75/1978
KISP: 67/1999
APRIL 4:
KEWR: 82/1950
KBDR: 71/2025
KNYC: 80/1892
KLGA: 76/2010
KJFK: 73/2010
KISP: 75/2010
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 62/2016
KBDR: 53/2016
KNYC: 61/2016
KLGA: 56/2016
KJFK: 52/2016
KISP: 54/2016
APRIL 4:
KEWR: 61/1981
KBDR: 53/2025
KNYC: 62/1892
KLGA: 57/2025
KJFK: 57/2025
KISP: 54/2025
APRIL 5:
KEWR: 55/1981
KBDR: 49/1974
KNYC: 60/1892
KLGA: 53/2010
KJFK: 52/2010
KISP: 50/1981
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JMC/MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET
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