173
FXUS61 KOKX 021130
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
730 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME AREAS IN NY
AND NJ.
KEY MESSAGES
1. POTENTIAL DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR
COASTAL AREAS.
2. MINIMAL TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS FOR TONIGHT.
3. SHOWERS LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH ANY IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WARM FRONT ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED LIFT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. FOG WILL THEN BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WIND FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WARMER DEWPOINTS ADVECT OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH REGARDING HOW LOW THE SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL
BE REDUCED, HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD INSTANCES WHERE THE VISIBILITY FALLS TO A QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS. NO ADVISORIES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT, BUT IT'S
SOMETHING THAT'LL NEED TO BE MONITORED. HIGHEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE TOWARDS THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SPRING TIDES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT ENE FLOW WILL ALLOW TIDES
TO BRIEFLY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE MOST
VULNERABLE BACK BAY LOCATIONS OF NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS ALONG
PORTIONS OF STATEN ISLAND AND PARTS OF NE NJ THIS EVENING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF 50TH PERCENTILE PETSS AND NYHOPS
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS, PARTICULARLY WHERE THE BIAS CORRECTION
SEEMS TO BE RUNNING A LITTLE TOO HIGH.
KEY MESSAGE 3
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN FOR THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS. WITH LIMITED SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS A LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SOME
LIFT ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT, AND SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS OF THUNDER, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL
POCKETS OF -DZ TODAY. SHRA POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN
04-10Z. CIGS MAY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR
BEFORE LOWERING BACK DOWN TO IFR BY EVENING. LIFR BECOMES
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.
E WINDS 10-15KT WITH G20-25KT. THE HIGHER END OF THOSE RANGES
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL AT SOME
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR THE TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. SW G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER SAT NIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SE-S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SW GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KT DURING DAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT NIGHT.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT NOW THROUGH
MOST OF TONIGHT, SO THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS TIME.
ON THE REMAINING WATERS, EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SCA HERE REMAINS IN EFFECT.
NEXT CHANCE OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD THEN BE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE
OCEAN WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY CONDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF GALES ON THE
OCEAN, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT'S A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, SO STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS ON THE
OCEAN INTO SOME OF MONDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC
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