563
FXUS61 KOKX 030551
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. POTENTIAL DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR
COASTAL AREAS.
2. SHOWERS ON SUNDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCAL DOWNPOURS THAT WOULD
LEAD TO BRIEF NUISANCE FLOODING AT MOST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WARM FRONT ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED LIFT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. FOG WILL THEN BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING WITH THE WIND FLOW TURNING MORE SE AND WARMER
DEWPOINTS ADVECT OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH REGARDING HOW LOW THE SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AS WELL AS ACTUAL ONSET OF LOWEST VSBYS, HOWEVER SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD INSTANCES
WHERE THE VISIBILITY FALLS CLOSE TO 1/4 MILE. NO ADVISORIES
PLANNED AT THE MOMENT, BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
HIGHEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE TOWARD THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN US.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT DRIVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH ATTENDANT FRONTS LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION, BRINGING
THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT WITH THE
ACTIVITY, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A
LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. GLOBAL GUIDANCE PROGS PW UP TO 1.5
INCHES THOUGH, TOWARD THE TOP OF CLIMO THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO TAP INTO THAT COULD TRANSLATE INTO
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AT MOST, MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, QPF IS LIGHT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM, AVERAGING AT OR UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, AND THE MILDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE
SEASONABLE ONE, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE 40S
AND 50S FOR MOST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED VLIFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL
POCKETS OF -DZ THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY. THE EASTERN TERMINALS, KISP AND
KGON, WILL BE THE LAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR, FROM ABOUT 18Z-20Z.
IT'S POSSIBLE LOWER CEILINGS LINGER PAST THESE TIMES, ESPECIALLY
AT KGON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF ADDITIONAL -SHRA. LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY FOR
EASTERN COASTAL TERMINALS. HANDLED THIS WITH PROB30 AT THIS
TIME.
E WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S TO SW FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE MORNING. G15-20KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITION, WITH A CHANCE
OF VLIFR.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING CHANGES OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY LATE NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR, MAINLY AT
THE EASTERN TERMINALS (LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME).
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER SAT NIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SE-S WINDS G15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SW WINDS
G20KT DAYTIME. W-NW WINDS G20 KT AT NIGHT.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. W
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN 6-9 FT WHICH IS 1-2 FT ABOVE NWPS
FORECAST, HIGHEST WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT ENE FLOW UP TO 20 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KT. WITH THIS IN MIND, IT NOW APPEARS THAT
ANY LULL DAYTIME FRI WILL BE BRIEF AND THAT SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK TO 5-6 FT BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT
MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT S AFTER WARM FROPA AND INCREASE TO NEAR
20 KT.
DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CHOSE NOT TO ISSUE THE ADVY UNTIL TIMING
OF ONSET OF LOWER VSBYS BECOMES CLEARER.
SCA COND ARE ALSO LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AND OCEAN SEAS 7-10
FT LIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON THE OCEAN LOOKS LOW DUE TO A
STRONG SFC-BASED INVERSION AND LLJ ONLY 50-55 KT. THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO ANY GALES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OUR EAST.
OCEAN SEAS THEN LIKELY LINGER ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/DR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...GOODMAN/DR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page