171
FXUS61 KOKX 030715
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
315 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THRU SUNDAY.
2. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL DROP TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AREAS OF FOG AND DZ EXPECTED THRU THE MRNG WITH FLOW COMING IN
FROM THE ATLC AND SW FLOW ALOFT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU DURING
THE LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND A DISSIPATION OF THE FOG AND DZ. THE
BOUNDARY COMES BACK DOWN THRU THE AREA TNGT, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHWRS AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND DZ, THEN SAT NGT MORE EXTENSIVE
FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF E FLOW OFF THE WATER. MOS
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA SAT NGT
INTO SUN MRNG.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARMING TREND THE NEXT TWO DAYS DESPITE A RETURN TO E FLOW ON
SAT. THERE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN REGARDING THE ACTUAL NUMBERS
HOWEVER, WITH THE NBM MUCH WARMER THAN THE MOS. IF THE CLEARING
OCCURS AS EXPECTED TODAY, THE NBM NUMBERS LOOK ACHIEVABLE. ON
SAT HOWEVER IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK OUT OF THE MARINE
LAYER, WITH THE MOS SUGGESTING A 10+ DEGREE BUST POSSIBLE. HAVE
STUCK WITH THE NBM FOR NOW, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED
WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS. A COLD FRONT COMES THRU ON EASTER, BUT
THE FROPA MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO SPIKE IN THE AFTN DUE TO THE
MIXING NW FLOW AND SCATTERING OF CLOUDS. TIMING OF THE FRONT A
BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER, WITH THE NAM NOTABLY SLOWER
THAN THE GFS. COOLER MON AND BEYOND WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...LOWER RH THOUGH.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED VLIFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL
POCKETS OF -DZ THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY. THE EASTERN TERMINALS, KISP AND
KGON, WILL BE THE LAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR, FROM ABOUT 18Z-20Z.
IT'S POSSIBLE LOWER CEILINGS LINGER PAST THESE TIMES, ESPECIALLY
AT KGON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF ADDITIONAL -SHRA. LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY FOR
EASTERN COASTAL TERMINALS. HANDLED THIS WITH PROB30 AT THIS
TIME.
E WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S TO SW FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE MORNING. G15-20KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITION, WITH A CHANCE
OF VLIFR.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING CHANGES OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY LATE NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR, MAINLY AT
THE EASTERN TERMINALS (LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME).
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER SAT NIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SE-S WINDS G15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SW WINDS
G20KT DAYTIME. W-NW WINDS G20 KT AT NIGHT.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. W
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH A 1NM CRITERIA FOR FOG ON THE WATERS, ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVY THRU THE MRNG HOURS ON ALL WATERS. THE SCA REMAINS IN PLACE
ON THE OCEAN THRU TNGT, WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS HITTING
CRITERIA AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE SW. THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY ON SAT WITH SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING. ALL WATERS LIKELY AT SCA LVLS SUN WITH A FRONTAL SYS
PASSING THRU. DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON MON, THEN ALL WATERS
BLW SCA LVLS TUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JMC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JMC
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