886
FXUS61 KOKX 031144
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THRU SUNDAY.
2. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL DROP TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AREAS OF FOG AND DZ EXPECTED THRU THE MRNG WITH FLOW COMING IN
FROM THE ATLC AND SW FLOW ALOFT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU DURING
THE LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND A DISSIPATION OF THE FOG AND DZ. THE
BOUNDARY COMES BACK DOWN THRU THE AREA TNGT, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHWRS AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND DZ, THEN SAT NGT MORE EXTENSIVE
FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF E FLOW OFF THE WATER. MOS
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA SAT NGT
INTO SUN MRNG.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARMING TREND THE NEXT TWO DAYS DESPITE A RETURN TO E FLOW ON
SAT. THERE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN REGARDING THE ACTUAL NUMBERS
HOWEVER, WITH THE NBM MUCH WARMER THAN THE MOS. IF THE CLEARING
OCCURS AS EXPECTED TODAY, THE NBM NUMBERS LOOK ACHIEVABLE. ON
SAT HOWEVER IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK OUT OF THE MARINE
LAYER, WITH THE MOS SUGGESTING A 10+ DEGREE BUST POSSIBLE. HAVE
STUCK WITH THE NBM FOR NOW, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED
WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS. A COLD FRONT COMES THRU ON EASTER, BUT
THE FROPA MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO SPIKE IN THE AFTN DUE TO THE
MIXING NW FLOW AND SCATTERING OF CLOUDS. TIMING OF THE FRONT A
BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER, WITH THE NAM NOTABLY SLOWER
THAN THE GFS. COOLER MON AND BEYOND WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...LOWER RH THOUGH.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BRIEF VLIFR
POSSIBLE. -DZ POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, MAINLY AFTER 18Z. THE
EASTERN TERMINALS, KISP AND KGON, WILL BE THE LAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR, FROM ABOUT 18Z-22Z. IT'S POSSIBLE LOWER CEILINGS LINGER
PAST THESE TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KGON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL -SHRA. LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND MVFR/IFR CIGS MORE LIKELY FOR SE COASTAL
TERMINALS (KGON/KISP/KJFK), BUT POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE. HANDLED
THIS WITH PROB30 AT THIS TIME FOR MOST TERMINALS.
E WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE S TO SW LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10-15 KT. G15-20KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR KJFK.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING CHANGES OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER SAT NIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SE-S WINDS G15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SW WINDS
G20KT DAYTIME. W-NW WINDS G20 KT AT NIGHT.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. W
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH A 1NM CRITERIA FOR FOG ON THE WATERS, ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVY THRU THE MRNG HOURS ON ALL WATERS. THE SCA REMAINS IN PLACE
ON THE OCEAN THRU TNGT, WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS HITTING
CRITERIA AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE SW. THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY ON SAT WITH SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING. ALL WATERS LIKELY AT SCA LVLS SUN WITH A FRONTAL SYS
PASSING THRU. DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON MON, THEN ALL WATERS
BLW SCA LVLS TUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...
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