490
FXUS61 KOKX 031949
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
349 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED ON OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
ENDING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
2) COOLER, QUIETER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH IT, SOME PEEKS OF
SUN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET AS WELL AS LESS INSTANCES OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS.
HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA WILL
SEND WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT THIS EVENING, MAINLY
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
OVERNIGHT, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH, WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OUT EAST AND ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEN, AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST BRINGS THE FRONT BACK THROUGH
AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE, WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. AROUND
DAYBREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON ON EASTER, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS OCCURS IN TANDEM
WITH AN INCREASING COASTAL LLJ AND DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION. A MORE
DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS THEN LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
EASTER DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY IS QUITE LOW,
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING AND ELEVATED CAPE TO ALLOW
ONE OR TWO RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN THE LINE OF SHOWERS. NO FLASH
FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH CONDITIONS
TURNING COOLER AND QUIETER BEHIND IT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS, PERHAPS EVEN MIXING WITH WET SNOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA EARLY TUE AM, BUT COVERAGE
APPEARS SPOTTY AND QPF IS LIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE HIGH USHERS IN A COOL CANADIAN AIR
MASS, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE 40S AND 50S, OR ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THROUGH TONIGHT, PASSING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT.
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KEWR AND KJFK ARE EXPECT TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 20Z, WHILE EASTERN TERMINALS, KISP AND KGON MAY IMPROVE
BETWEEN 20Z-22Z. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KISP AND KGON
REMAIN MVFR.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR FOR METRO TERMINALS MAINLY FOR KJFK AND KLGA FROM
00Z-04Z, WHILE KEWR AND KTEB MAY ONLY SEE TEMPO CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE FOR SE COASTAL TERMINALS
(KGON/KISP/KJFK). THIS IS A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST, AND MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND LAST LONGER THAN
FORECAST.
S TO SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH G15-20KT POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W, NW, THEN NE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE METRO TERMINALS. OUTLYING TERMINALS
MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR KJFK.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING CHANGES OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: VFR, BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SE WINDS BECOMING E WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS. SW WINDS G20 KT DAYTIME. W-NW
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. W WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. N WINDS BECOMING
NE AT 10 KT OR LESS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WHILE SOME CLEARING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON PARTS OF THE OCEAN WATERS,
FOG IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AN ISSUE ON THE OCEAN UNTIL LATE
THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT WHEN IT FINALLY CLEARS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED, AS A RESULT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE OCEAN UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO LINGERING HIGHER SEAS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN
25 KT GUSTS MAY RETURN TO OFFSHORE WATERS. WE'LL THEN DROP BACK
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO CLIMBING SEAS AND
STRONGER WINDS. GUSTS OF 35-40KT ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE,
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON MON, THEN ALL WATERS BLW SCA LVLS
TUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345-350-
353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ350-353.
DISCUSSION...BR/DR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BR/DR
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