075
FXUS61 KOKX 040513
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
113 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 6Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
ENDING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY.
2. COOLER, QUIETER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
OVERNIGHT, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH, WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OUT EAST AND ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. THEN, AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST BRINGS THE FRONT
BACK THROUGH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF FOG AND DRIZZLE, WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. AROUND DAYBREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON ON EASTER,
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
CANADA. THIS OCCURS IN TANDEM WITH AN INCREASING COASTAL LLJ AND
DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION. A MORE DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS THEN
LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY EASTER DAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY IS QUITE LOW, THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING AND ELEVATED CAPE TO ALLOW ONE OR TWO RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITHIN THE LINE OF SHOWERS. NO FLASH FLOODING OR SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS TURNING COOLER AND QUIETER BEHIND IT THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS, PERHAPS EVEN MIXING WITH WET
SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA EARLY TUE
AM, BUT COVERAGE APPEARS SPOTTY AND QPF IS LIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE HIGH USHERS IN A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE 40S
AND 50S, OR ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY.
AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE THRU THE EARLY MRNG HOURS, BUT
MAINLY MVFR OR BETTER IS EXPECTED ATTM. PRIMARILY VFR DURING THE
DAY, THEN FOG AND PERHAPS DZ DEVELOPS TNGT WITH IFR OR LOWER
LIKELY.
S-SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW OVERNIGHT AND THEN N-SE THIS
MORNING AFTER FROPA. WINDS THEN BECOME E-SE 10-20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE, BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MRNG. BEST CHANCE FOR KJFK. AMD LIKELY
FOR TIMING CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TONIGHT: IFR/LIFR COND WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SE WINDS BECOMING E WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
SUNDAY: IFR/LIFR COND WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING,
OTHERWISE SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND. IMPROVING TO VFR BY EVENING.
SW WINDS G20KT DAYTIME.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. W WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. N WINDS BECOMING
NE AT 10 KT OR LESS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WHILE SOME CLEARING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON PARTS OF THE OCEAN WATERS,
FOG IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AN ISSUE ON THE OCEAN UNTIL LATE
THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT WHEN IT FINALLY CLEARS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED, AS A RESULT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE OCEAN UNTIL SAT
MORNING DUE TO LINGERING HIGHER SEAS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN
25 KT GUSTS MAY RETURN TO OFFSHORE WATERS. WE'LL THEN DROP BACK
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO CLIMBING SEAS AND
STRONGER WINDS. GUSTS OF 35-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
THEREFORE, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON MON, THEN ALL WATERS BLW SCA LVLS
TUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ350-353.
DISCUSSION...BR/DR
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...BR/DR
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