222
FXUS61 KOKX 041135
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
735 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT,
ENDING WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY.
2. COOLER, QUIETER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
A DECAYING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MORNING
ALLOWING A S/W FLOW TO SHIFT MORE NW/N. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FLOW TO SHIFT MORE
NE, REINFORCING A MORE MARINE AIRMASS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE
TODAY. THIS WILL PREVENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO
MUCH TODAY, GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG
THE COAST WITH PERHAPS MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR WESTERN AREAS.
THE NE FLOW ALSO BRINGS THE CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS A STRONGLY INVERTED LOW LEVEL WILL TRAP
MOISTURE IN THE BL.
THE WEAK FRONT ONCE AGAIN STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST APPROACHES INTO
SUNDAY, THE FRONT MAY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT,
ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
THROUGH ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE
AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW BUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25-0.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY OUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS TURNING COOLER AND QUIETER BEHIND IT THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS, PERHAPS EVEN MIXING WITH WET
SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA EARLY TUE
AM, BUT COVERAGE APPEARS SPOTTY AND QPF IS LIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE HIGH USHERS IN A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE 40S
AND 50S, OR ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
THESE COOLER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE SEASONABLE BY THURSDAY WITH
PERHAPS A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY,
AND OVER THE ATLC TNGT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE W ON SUN.
AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MRNG, BUT MAINLY MVFR OR BETTER IS
EXPECTED ATTM. PRIMARILY VFR AFT 14Z, THEN FOG AND PERHAPS DZ
DEVELOPS TNGT WITH IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. RAIN DEVELOPS AFT 12Z
SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
VRB WINDS BECOME N/NE THIS MORNING AFTER THE FROPA. WINDS THEN
BECOME E/SE 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE, BEFORE DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE AGAIN SUN MRNG
BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.
MARGINAL LLWS ERN ARPTS SUN MRNG, AND HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
TAF FOR ISP.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
FOG AND DZ COVERAGE COULD BE QUICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD TNGT,
HOWEVER TIMING LIKELY REMAINS AFT 00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: IFR/LIFR COND WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING,
OTHERWISE SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND. IMPROVING TO VFR BY EVENING.
SW WINDS G20KT DAYTIME, BECOMING NW LATE IN THE DAY.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. W WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. N WINDS BECOMING
NE AT 10 KT OR LESS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA THIS MORNING, GUSTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 5 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT, EVEN AS GUSTS DROP OFF.
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO CLIMBING SEAS AND
STRONGER WINDS. GUSTS OF NEAR 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH A
GALE WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON MON, THEN ALL WATERS BLW SCA LVLS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ350-353.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MW
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