771
FXUS61 KOKX 050352
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1152 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WATCH ON OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY REPLACED BY A SCA. IN
ADDITION, A SCA IS NOW UP FOR ALL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MUCH COOLER BY THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT, ENDING WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
2. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC, WILL
PRODUCE A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW (NBM UNDERDONE) AND A
SURGE OF MARITIME AIR INTO THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL STEADILY DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY EVENING.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT, SENDING THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL BE
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FOG WILL
LAST INTO MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
NE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO FOLLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS
WILL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE WARM SECTOR. A LARGE OF AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLOWER TO DRY OUT DUE TO A POST-FRONTAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE- HALF INCH.
SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE.
HOWEVER, FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE STRONG CP AIRMASS IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT MODIFIES INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE GO THROUGH A MODIFICATION AND WARMING
TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THURSDAY, MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE SFC WIND
DIRECTION. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES STILL QUITE COLD A MORE SOUTHERLY
OR EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS OPPOSED TO A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. ALSO, 5 KFT
TEMPERATURES REALLY DON'T WARM SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THUS, HAVE STAYED WITH THE NBM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH A COLD FRONT THAT LIKELY
WASHES OUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS JUST UPSTREAM LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY INDICATING FOR FRIDAY, AND ON SATURDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW
STAYING CLOSE TO THE NBM, BUT THERE IS A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE
FOR ADJUSTMENTS GOING FORWARD IN TIME.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, LIFTING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUB VFR THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOP INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR CONDS,
POSSIBLY VLIFR. THE BEST CHANCES FOR VLIFR IS ALONG THE COAST
AND OUTLYING AREAS (KJFK, KISP, KBDR, KGON, KHPN). LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE CIGS AND VSBYS BEGIN TO
LIFT BEHIND THE COLD FROPA IN THE AFTERNOON.
E TO ESE FLOW TONIGHT 10-15 KT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THRU
AROUND 5Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SSW AFTER
12Z SUN, THEN W/WNW BY LATE DAY BEHIND THE FROPA. GUSTS OVER 20
KT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
VLIFR COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOR THE MORNING PUSH WITH FOG
AND DRIZZLE.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. WNW/NW G25KT.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS. W WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. N WINDS BECOMING NE AT 10 KT OR LESS.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT INTO THIS EVENING,
STRONGEST ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HOWEVER, FUNNELING DOWN LI SOUND
MAY PRODUCE SIMILAR GUSTS FOR A TIME. WINDS THEN RELAX SOME
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SCA HEADLINES
ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP LATER SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE AGAIN, GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. A STRONG INVERSION OVER THE WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE EVENING. SCA
SEAS ARE LIKELY LINGER ON THE OCEAN FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW FLOW TUESDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MID WEEK DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JE/DW/MW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE/DW
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