232
FXUS61 KOKX 050720
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
320 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL PERHAPS WITH SOME THUNDER. DRY CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
2. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER NIGHT SURGES
NORTH THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING WITH IT
A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, PERHAPS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER GIVEN SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
OVERALL, 0.25-0.5" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER
IN ANY LOCATIONS WITH HEAVIER EMBEDDED CONVECTION OR A
THUNDERSTORM.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS INTO THE AREA MID-WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY HOWEVER
BRING SOME SHOWERS FOR INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
BUT POPS ARE ONLY 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
GENERALLY REACHING THEIR COLDEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A MORE MODERATE AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THURSDAY,
MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE SFC WIND DIRECTION. WITH
WATER TEMPERATURES STILL QUITE COLD A MORE SOUTHERLY OR EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS OPPOSED TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
WILL HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. ALSO, 5 KFT TEMPERATURES
REALLY DON'T WARM SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THUS, HAVE STAYED WITH THE NBM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH A COLD FRONT THAT LIKELY WASHES
OUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS JUST UPSTREAM LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY INDICATING FOR FRIDAY, AND ON SATURDAY AS WELL. FOR
NOW STAYING CLOSE TO THE NBM, BUT THERE IS A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CHANCE FOR ADJUSTMENTS GOING FORWARD IN TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY IFR OR LOWER THRU THIS MRNG WITH FG AND DZ. THERE COULD
BE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR DUE TO RISING CIGS IN THE EARLY AFTN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THIS TIME PERIOD WILL SEE THE
STEADIEST RAIN, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. BECOMING VFR AFT THE
FROPA, AND REMAINING VFR THRU THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
E TO ESE FLOW TONIGHT 10-15 KT. OCNL GUSTS POSSIBLE THRU THE
EARLY MRNG HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SSW AFTER 12Z, THEN
W/WNW BY LATE DAY BEHIND THE FROPA. GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT
DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND PERSIST THRU THE NGT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
VLIFR COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOR THE MORNING PUSH WITH FOG
AND DRIZZLE.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS THRU ABOUT 21Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TONIGHT: VFR. WNW/NW G25KT.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS. W WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. N WINDS BECOMING NE AT 10 KT OR LESS.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH
MUCH OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NY HARBOR AND THE W LIS.
WAVES ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN RAMP UP LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS
WHERE A SCA IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE, THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL
GALE-FORCE GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE EVENING. SCA
SEAS ARE LIKELY LINGER ON THE OCEAN FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW FLOW TUESDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MID WEEK DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...
MARINE...MW
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