137
FXUS61 KOKX 051113
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
713 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
2. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL PERHAPS WITH SOME THUNDER. DRY CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
3. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COAST HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR OR
BELOW 1 MILE. THIS FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AND PERSIST INTO
LATE MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAINFALL TO THE AREA. AN
SPS IS ISSUED FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS THROUGH 10 AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER NIGHT SURGES
NORTH THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING WITH IT
A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, PERHAPS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER GIVEN SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
OVERALL, 0.25-0.5" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER
IN ANY LOCATIONS WITH HEAVIER EMBEDDED CONVECTION OR A
THUNDERSTORM.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS INTO THE AREA MID-WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY HOWEVER
BRING SOME SHOWERS FOR INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
BUT POPS ARE ONLY 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
GENERALLY REACHING THEIR COLDEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A MORE MODERATE AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THURSDAY,
MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE SFC WIND DIRECTION. WITH
WATER TEMPERATURES STILL QUITE COLD A MORE SOUTHERLY OR EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS OPPOSED TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
WILL HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. ALSO, 5 KFT TEMPERATURES
REALLY DON'T WARM SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THUS, HAVE STAYED WITH THE NBM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH A COLD FRONT THAT LIKELY WASHES
OUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS JUST UPSTREAM LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY INDICATING FOR FRIDAY, AND ON SATURDAY AS WELL. FOR
NOW STAYING CLOSE TO THE NBM, BUT THERE IS A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CHANCE FOR ADJUSTMENTS GOING FORWARD IN TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN
FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY IFR OR LOWER TODAY WITH FG AND DZ, THIS MRNG, THEN RAIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. BECOMING
VFR AFT THE FROPA LATE THIS AFTN, THEN REMAINING VFR THRU THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SW AROUND 13-14Z, THEN W/WNW BY LATE DAY
BEHIND THE FROPA. GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND
PERSIST THRU MON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
THE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW THIS MRNG MAY NOT OCCUR TIL 14-16Z.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS THRU ABOUT 21Z, THEN
VFR.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS. W WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. N WINDS BECOMING NE AT 10 KT OR LESS.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
THROUGH NOON FOR FOG DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO 1 NM OR LESS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH
MUCH OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NY HARBOR AND THE W LIS.
WAVES ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN RAMP UP LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS
WHERE A SCA IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE, THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL
GALE-FORCE GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE EVENING. SCA
SEAS ARE LIKELY LINGER ON THE OCEAN FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW FLOW TUESDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MID WEEK DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page