648
FXUS61 KOKX 190801
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE NYC METRO FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND FALL INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.
2) COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES LIKELY OUTSIDE THE URBAN NYC METRO MONDAY NIGHT.
3) MILDER WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE EAST, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GRADUALLY
WORKING INTO WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER IN THE MORNING, ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND
IT SUPPORTED BY THE RAPIDLY FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH COMES
IN AND AN INCOMING 120 KT UPPER JET. THE RAIN TAPERS FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT, ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS FOR
MOST, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF INCH OFF TO THE NORTH
AND WEST INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY. WHILE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WITH THE FROPA LATE THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB ANY HIGHER THAN WHERE THEY STARTED THE DAY, AND MORE LIKELY,
FALL SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN ON THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA.
CAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
30S FOR MOST, AND LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NYC METRO. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY AM AS A SECONDARY FRONT
APPROACHES, AND COULD HELP SPUR A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY AND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS SOME HI-RES CAMS ARE DEPICTING. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO
PLENTY OF STRATOCU MONDAY, AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WET FLAKES
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. THE BULK OF THE DAY REMAINS DRY THOUGH,
AND MUCH DRIER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO EFFICIENTLY COOL
THE BL. OPTED TO BLEND IN A BIT COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVEN
THIS SETUP, AND A WIDESPREAD FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST
OUTSIDE NYC. FREEZE WATCH HOISTED FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN
METRO. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO MID
30S IN THE CITY, OR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RECORD
DAILY LOWS ARE EVEN IN REACH FOR A FEW SITES, SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAIL.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP A WEAK RETURN FLOW AND A MILDER
NIGHT COMPARED TO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS IT DOES INTO WED
AM, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS SCATTERED AT BEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
FOLLOWS LATER WEDNESDAY, BUT DESPITE THE FROPA, TEMPERATURES
NUDGE UPWARDS INTO LATE WEEK WITH DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THURSDAY LIKELY THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST; FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THIS MORNING, AND MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS SUNDAY
EVENING.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES
VARYING FROM VFR TO LIFR IN FOG, WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE AREA, AHEAD OF AND WITH A COLD FRONT, FROM THE
WEST TOWARD MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY,
REMAINING IFR UNTIL LATE MORNING, WITH MVFR. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING , HOWEVER, WITH LOW
COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE, HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO HIGH END MVFR AND THEN BECOMING VFR.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT E/SE TO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING TO NW
AND BECOMING GUSTY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHEST WINDS AND
GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH
GUSTS AND WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS END
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND EXTENT OF LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NW WINDS G20KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AROUND THIS MORNING, AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE UNDER 1 NM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS SHOULD
AN ADVISORY BE NEEDED. EITHER WAY, VSBYS IMPROVE BY MID MORNING
OR SO AS RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE WATERS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE MORNING, WITH INCREASING
NW FLOW BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SCA WIND GUSTS (25 TO 30
KT) ON THE NEAR SHORE OCEAN WATERS, LI SOUND, LI BAYS, AND NY
HARBOR FOR THE AFTERNOON. NEARSHORE OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD
TO AROUND 4 OR 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, AND
CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
TUE, APRIL 21
KEWR: 31/1981
KBDR: 29/1956
KNYC: 26/1875
KLGA: 33/1956
KJFK: 34/1956
KISP: 30/1965
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ067>071-078>081-177-179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NJZ002-004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ353-355.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR
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